Cuba Should Clobber This Baby...

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's already a weak system...let's hope and pray that Cuba clobbers it...it easily could become a depression after it crosses Cuba. The circulation could even be dismantled to the point that it will have a tougher time getting its' act together before it gets to Florida and heads East out to sea. There are some really tough mountains where the system appears to be heading. This would be a best case scenario for Florida and I'm hoping this comes to fruition.

[crazycajuncane]

And I said the same thing about Chris, but so many people wanted a storm so bad they were too blind to see it.

I started a thread... dead or alive and sooo many people thought for sure Chris HAD to survive! He didn't make it.

I believe Ernesto will get shredded, but make a comeback... like I just posted on another thread... maybe a Cat.1, but now it might be a TS in the Florida landfall.

Ernesto will be over a lot of land and like you said... has some tough mountains to overcome. This is really great news for everyone. He is down to 50 mph winds already. I told everyone not to buy into the hype.... wait till Monday to see where this is going. Not only is it missing TX,LA,MS and Alabama..... Mr. big bad Ernesto is now missing his big cane status.

[gtalum]

If Cuba kills this cane, I'm goign to go buy a ton of Cuban cigars to inject some money into their economy!

[bayoubebe]

That would be great news and I think that Cuba and the mountains there will weaken it, if not destroy it.

[Cape Verde]

The Cuban mountains are overrated. Yes, it has a peak of over 6500 feet but they're mostly in the 3000 foot range and within about 20 miles of the coast. A storm can cross them in less than a couple hours.

[Terry]

Good stuff gets too lost in the too many posts. Pkwick posted this earlier:

I'm not understanding why Cuba is thought to be such a cyclone killer. Here are some longer storm intereactions with Cuba:

Frederic 1979
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Frederic spent several days over Cuba in which he became a Tropical Depression, passed to the south of Cuba where he began to regain strength, crossed Cuba again, then exploded to CAT4.

Georges 1998
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Elena 1985 (appears to have gained strength while over Cuba)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Kate 1985
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

[Opal storm]

Considering how slow it's moving and the NW track it's on,I wouldn't be surprised to see Ernie go down to a TD after it passes.It's approaching Cuba at a angle that will keep it over a lot of land.Maybe if it jumps west and stays a little longer over water it can strengthen more and have a little better of a chance but that's not happening right now.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Best to not confuse cuba with haiti. Haiti has the Mountains, Cuba is just a larger landmass with normal weakenning and its narrower than the fla peninsula.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, my only point is that, presently the system is already weak heading into these mountain ranges...if the storm was a significant hurricane, I think we would be looking at a different story, but, it is already so unimpressive this evening, as it is and it hasn't even gotten to Cuba. I don't think it will kill it, but, it should do some respectable damage to the system.

[sfwx]

Chris died before it got to Cuba. An ULL got it.


Eric

[VeniceInlet]

We have seen so many cases where a storm has significantly weakened over Cuba only to restrengthen again in the Gulf. This has happened just as often as storms have dissipated. So we really don't know yet. The fat lady will sing in the GOM after it passes Cuba.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

If Cuba is such a storm killer, someone explain this map please on how a storm formed into a TD in the windward passage and then become a tropical storm halfway across its tour of the entire length of the island????
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Stephanie]

I think that Ernesto's track over Haiti/Cuba will be a Godsend for Florida, but once he's back over the warm Gulf or Atlantic waters...

[crazycajuncane]

If Cuba is such a storm killer, someone explain this map please on how a storm formed into a TD in the windward passage and then become a tropical storm halfway across its tour of the entire length of the island????
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Please explain why Chris didn't plow through and become a Cat.3 like expected? I'll explain when you explain.

What we are saying is that it could happen. No one said it will, but I sure hope it does AS SHOULD all Floridians right now.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

If Cuba is such a storm killer, someone explain this map please on how a storm formed into a TD in the windward passage and then become a tropical storm halfway across its tour of the entire length of the island????
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Please explain why Chris didn't plow through and become a Cat.3 like expected? I'll explain when you explain.

What we are saying is that it could happen. No one said it will, but I sure hope it does AS SHOULD all Floridians right now.

Cuba didnt kill chris, it was already a remnant low level swirl due to shear. Ernie is intact and in a good enviroment other than land-It definitely more organized than a 30kt TD as elena was. Storms can and have strengthenned over land. Katrina did over Fla. Ernie may weaken but I dont think it will as much as everybody thinks.

[Extremeweatherguy]

At this point I find it hard to believe Ernesto will ever regain hurricane status. Hopefully we will all be lucky and see him die over Cuba.

September might be more interesting though, because it is obvious that the potential for a major storm is out there. I can only imagine what would happen if a storm could work into the Yucatan Channel (as Ernesto was originally forecasted to do), that would be a BAD situation.

Like Chris, I think Ernesto will be remembered more as a wake-up call for a storm that may be coming next month. JMO.

[cinlfla]

I've been watching the center it looks like its moving a little more north then NW looking at satellite I don't think its going to be over much of Cuba if any at all IMO.

[flyingphish]

There was a good post here yesterday about how this system may be drawn north temporarily and then get shunted back more to the wnw. I think it was M. Watkins. I thought this storm would already be weaker than it is now due to the proximity to Hispaniola last evening. But if this system does snub Cuba by moving more to the nnw then it hits Fl. sooner than later. Seems Ernie is a cornered rat. There may still be a surprise or two with this one.

[Wthrman13]

Cuba didnt kill chris, it was already a remnant low level swirl due to shear. Ernie is intact and in a good enviroment other than land-It definitely more organized than a 30kt TD as elena was. Storms can and have strengthenned over land. Katrina did over Fla. Ernie may weaken but I dont think it will as much as everybody thinks.

Actually, Katrina weakened to a TS over Florida. However, the overall structure of the system was maintained and even improved slightly (i.e in regards to eye structure and clarity) during its time over land.

[Jim Cantore]

I dont think he'll see Hurricane status again. He might take too much damage from Cuba.