No Significant Short-Term Changes in 12Z Guidance So Far

[MWatkins]

Just reviewing the 12Z GFS and NOGAPS solutions...there is no change worth mentioning from the 0Z runs. They are expecting Ernesto to come in around Dade County...slow...and then shift northward running up the state. The 12Z GFS takes it across and almost touches into the Gulf before making the turn...not the best news considering the best scenario would be for a turn in front of Florida...so far there is no support for that idea.

Also remember there was a new set of synoptic drops that went into these runs...so I am not expecting any divergance from the UKMET and GFDL.

Now...we just have to watch and wait and see what the center does...

MW

[gatorcane]

Just reviewing the 12Z GFS and NOGAPS solutions...there is no change worth mentioning from the 0Z runs. They are expecting Ernesto to come in around Dade County...slow...and then shift northward running up the state. The 12Z GFS takes it across and almost touches into the Gulf before making the turn...not the best news considering the best scenario would be for a turn in front of Florida...so far there is no support for that idea.

Also remember there was a new set of synoptic drops that went into these runs...so I am not expecting any divergance from the UKMET and GFDL.

Now...we just have to watch and wait and see what the center does...

MW

Thanks Mike it is indeed looking more and more like a SE Florida storm...I am watching VERY closely and hoping for the best.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I wouldn't be surprised if it missed FL all together. We'll see.

[Stratosphere747]

I wouldn't be surprised if it missed FL all together. We'll see.

With the way things have trended the last few days, might be a good call..

[deltadog03]

i wouldn't be suprised if it dies over cuba.

[bucman1]

MW,

You said the 12Z GFS takes Ernesto to the Gulf Of Mexico before the turn

to the north, isn't that a change?

If I misunderstood ,I apologize.

[MWatkins]

I wouldn't be surprised if it missed FL all together. We'll see.

Nor would I...that would be great news for us...and perhaps bad news further up the coast.

I was hoping to see a bend over extreme eastern Florida in the models...instead of the "L-shape" track the GFS/Nogaps are advertising.

So far that isn't happening. I suppose we will find out Wednesday morning.

MW

[MWatkins]

MW,

You said the 12Z GFS takes Ernesto to the Gulf Of Mexico before the turn

to the north, isn't that a change?

If I misunderstood ,I apologize.

Not far enough to be a direct issue for Tampa...the model...and it's just a model...takes it back over Florida at an angle...but not necessarily further north.

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

I wouldn't be surprised if it missed FL all together. We'll see.

Nor would I...that would be great news for us...and perhaps bad news further up the coast.

I was hoping to see a bend over extreme eastern Florida in the models...instead of the "L-shape" track the GFS/Nogaps are advertising.

So far that isn't happening. I suppose we will find out Wednesday morning.

MW

Where you seeing this MW? 12z i see has it clipping the coast?

[southerngale]

I find it simply amazing that a few days ago, it looked more like a Mexico, perhaps Texas storm and now it's possible that it will even miss Florida and/or go up the East Coast. It shows how unpredictable weather is and how hard it is to forecast short-term, let alone long-term.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Actually, The GFDL has been pretty darn good with this system, even without the drops. Many here were calling it a "crack" model when it had it crossing Hsp and Cuba. Now the latest data is in from the upper levels, the over/under cooking of the ridge heights would be about over

[Pebbles]

I have to go with the just barely clips/misses the east coast of FL crowd. Unfortunately that would be aweful too cause if it decides to take a ride on the gulfstream up the coast... it's just going to be Ugly stuffs. I'm baseing this off the track continuing to shift east and if you look at the Cuban radar it "appears" to be getting ready to exit cuba east of the forecasted track also.

[MWatkins]

I wouldn't be surprised if it missed FL all together. We'll see.

Nor would I...that would be great news for us...and perhaps bad news further up the coast.

I was hoping to see a bend over extreme eastern Florida in the models...instead of the "L-shape" track the GFS/Nogaps are advertising.

So far that isn't happening. I suppose we will find out Wednesday morning.

MW

Where you seeing this MW? 12z i see has it clipping the coast?

Here's the MSLP look:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

CMC has it clipping the coast...but at the end of the day it is the CMC.

UKMET is in close agreement with NOGAPS as well BTW...and has come a bit west since the last run.

MW

[Stratusxpeye]

These recent models ran at 8am have a westward shift in them. I remember seeing the other models form last night all over extreme east fl and some open water missing florida. Now the only one remaining on that track is the GFDL. All others show a more west track. Is this something that may be taking place? I IMO didnt think thered be any westward shift at all. Im with the crowd of ppl who agree with gfdl or possibly missing florida