low or open wave still in hostile environment

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low or open wave still in hostile environment

#1 Postby rainstorm » Sun Jun 15, 2003 4:33 pm

i dont think this has much chance to organize. 2 systems to watch in the east pac
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#2 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jun 15, 2003 6:20 pm

This system is struggling to say the least. Shear is forecast to increase in the area it is moving into. It is just about out of options to begin developing. Earlier this afternoon I could see what appeared to be a LLCC near 17N, 80W. If it was one I do not see it now unless it has reformed west under some regenerating convection at 19N, 81W or that is the mid level circulation. Definitely going to have to fight hard to make TD status.
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ColdFront77

#3 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Jun 15, 2003 6:24 pm

I find it rather odd, the upper level wind shear has been expected to decrease the last several hours... but it has been increasing instead.
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#4 Postby weatherlover427 » Sun Jun 15, 2003 7:14 pm

It is still early in the season, so don't be bummed just yet. ;)
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#5 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Jun 15, 2003 7:20 pm

Not bummed; just mentioning an observation. :)
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#6 Postby Toni - 574 » Sun Jun 15, 2003 7:27 pm

I really thought that the system would develop today. But then again we are talking the tropics and anything could still happen. What happened to the more favorable environment?

Toni :?
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#7 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jun 15, 2003 7:48 pm

Toni - 574 wrote:I really thought that the system would develop today. But then again we are talking the tropics and anything could still happen. What happened to the more favorable environment?

Toni :?


Needless to say it has changed somewhat. It is not in a terribly hostile environment, just not the best one or as good a one as was expected. As is always the case in the tropics, it seems conditions can change in a moment. I believe some of the increasing shear which is coming in from the S and SW is due to the ULL to the west of the system.
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#8 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Jun 15, 2003 7:55 pm

The expected decrease in shear should eventually take place. The wind shear which is coming from the S and SW wasn't affecting the system yesterday; which wouldn't make it impossible to either assist outflow (like Hurricane Andrew did with an upper level low) and/or the ULL will be far enough away from the system like the case was 24 to 30 hours ago.
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#9 Postby weatherlover427 » Sun Jun 15, 2003 8:32 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Not bummed; just mentioning an observation. :)


That is understandable, Tom, just making a point is all. :)
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#10 Postby Toni - 574 » Sun Jun 15, 2003 8:36 pm

Needless to say we will just have to be patient and have a wait and see attitude. When dealing with the tropics I should know that by now. Maybe before to long the ULL will weaken and move out.

Toni
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