what will the 11 p.m. advisory say

#1 Postby **emeraldislencguy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:18 pm

depression or storm

Scorpion · #2 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:19 pm

Probably storm, but the landfall forecast will go down even further, probably to weak TS(45-50 kts). All these people making preparations are wasting their time. At least its a good practice run.

#3 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:19 pm

35mph-40mph and a moderate shift to the west...posible landfall near everglades city as a strong TS.

#4 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:20 pm

LOL...well, that's a good question. I, for one, think it will still be a TS...I also think there's potential for it to get its act together once it tastes that nice warm water. However, I could also be wrong. Who knows.... :wink:

boca · #5 Postby **boca** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:20 pm

It will say depression or maybe a wave at this point

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:21 pm

Barely a storm... only because recon can't investigate completely with it over land. It will be much weaker for FL, with a track a bit further west.

cinlfla · #7 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:22 pm

I say a wave

Tropics Guy · #8 Postby **Tropics Guy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:23 pm

T numbers at 3.0, don't think it will be downgraded to a TD.

#9 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:23 pm

I personally think it is still a tropical storm and recently has resumed a more NW movement. To go from 40mph storm to a 70mph or 75mph CAT 1 is not difficult where it will be going...

I think Ernie is still very much alive.

mf_dolphin · #10 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:32 pm

If for no other reason than they can't fly into the center I think they'll maintain it as a TS. It's also called continuity or the path of least regret...

MiamiensisWx · #11 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:34 pm

I think it may be downgraded to a depression at the 11PM EST advisory/discussion. The core has eroded due to land interaction, and the broadening of the convection and circulation and the synoptics indicate it may well have weakened to a depression.

#12 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:36 pm

Tropics Guy wrote:T numbers at 3.0, don't think it will be downgraded to a TD.

That would suggest about a 50-60 mph storm?

I would hold it at 40 mph or even push it to 45 on the T number.

SirCane · #13 Postby **SirCane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:36 pm

It's headed for the Gulf. It's moving toward the West from what I can tell. If it gets under some of that 90 degree water, WHO KNOWS what might happen.

I do think the NHC needs to fix their forecast right now, because it looks off. All the models right now are left of the NHC track.

#14 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:38 pm

SirCane wrote:It's headed for the Gulf. It's moving toward the West from what I can tell. If it gets under some of that 90 degree water, WHO KNOWS what might happen.

I do think the NHC needs to fix their forecast right now, because it looks off. All the models right now are left of the NHC track.

Geez, this really is a mini-Elena? Doesn't know where he wants to go!

#15 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:39 pm

I think the NHC should be cautious and call this a minimal TS still - I wouldn't want people in South Florida going to bed tonight thinking that they were 100% safe...

just my thought.

#16 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:55 pm

yep they kept it as a storm as I suspected...

Senobia · #17 Postby **Senobia** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:08 pm

SirCane wrote:It's headed for the Gulf. It's moving toward the West from what I can tell. If it gets under some of that 90 degree water, WHO KNOWS what might happen.

I do think the NHC needs to fix their forecast right now, because it looks off. All the models right now are left of the NHC track.

WHAT?

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what will the 11 p.m. advisory say

what will the 11 p.m. advisory say

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