jb and the north carolina land fall
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weatherwoman
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jb and the north carolina land fall
what is your opinion of what Joe B is saying this am about "hurricane Ernisto coming on shore between cape fear and cape lookout north carolina
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weatherwoman
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well if he can clear the east coast of florida and get over enough water before turning back north then maybe we would have something to think about but ernesto hasn't played by any of the rules yet.Lets hope this rainfall map from the HPC is really off because if not were going to get soaked...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
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Stormsfury
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JB will always be JB ... he's banking on a sharper deeper trough to really pull Ernesto sharply NE (ala Floyd), however, since most, if not ALL dynamical models are showing two things ... The NHC forecast plots are all actually a bit EAST of most of the dynamical model guidance, and the trough is progged to pull away inducing a bit of a left turn after landfall and such is that is reflected in the NHC forecast track ...
Not to mention now, that since early this morning, Ernesto has been moving slightly left of the progged plots.
I'm maintaining a higher confidence now that the 2nd landfall will likely be along the South Carolina coast, somewhere between Charleston and Myrtle Beach ... and it is quite possible that may have to be shifted a bit left through the day today.
However, with that said, i also believe with reasoning logic, Ernesto will probably spend a bit more time over Florida, and should be able to keep Ernesto as a tropical storm on 2nd landfall ...
MOST of the impacts for the Carolinas will likely come from the Northern Semicircle with very strong easterly flow flooding inland from the Atlantic, as progs indicate PWATS reaching as high at 2.75", flooding rains (and beach erosion) at this time appears to be the highest dangers with Ernesto.
SF
Not to mention now, that since early this morning, Ernesto has been moving slightly left of the progged plots.
I'm maintaining a higher confidence now that the 2nd landfall will likely be along the South Carolina coast, somewhere between Charleston and Myrtle Beach ... and it is quite possible that may have to be shifted a bit left through the day today.
However, with that said, i also believe with reasoning logic, Ernesto will probably spend a bit more time over Florida, and should be able to keep Ernesto as a tropical storm on 2nd landfall ...
MOST of the impacts for the Carolinas will likely come from the Northern Semicircle with very strong easterly flow flooding inland from the Atlantic, as progs indicate PWATS reaching as high at 2.75", flooding rains (and beach erosion) at this time appears to be the highest dangers with Ernesto.
SF
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