Tropical Trouble for Mid September...GFS

[Ptarmigan]

Actually Texas' populated areas have not experienced a direct hit by a major hurricane since 1983. We are long, long overdue.

Last year Rita technically made landfall in the far southwestern corner of Louisiana but left severe damage in far east and southeast Texas. In 1999, Hurricane Bret hit Kenedy County and killed some cows and that was it. There have been several Cat-1s and borderline 2s ... but not a MAJOR since Alicia in 83.

Yes, we are. Alicia damaged Houston and it was really bad.

[southerngale]

Actually Texas' populated areas have not experienced a direct hit by a major hurricane since 1983. We are long, long overdue.

Last year Rita technically made landfall in the far southwestern corner of Louisiana but left severe damage in far east and southeast Texas. In 1999, Hurricane Bret hit Kenedy County and killed some cows and that was it. There have been several Cat-1s and borderline 2s ... but not a MAJOR since Alicia in 83.

Ugh. Rita directly went over Southeast Texas and directly did a ton of damage. I really don't post much about Rita anymore (for various reasons), but it doesn't matter "technically" in terms of affected areas - Rita HIT Southeast Texas too. You and anyone else can call it whatever you want, but the way I see it, we took a direct hit (as well as SW LA).


Click on the map once it opens to zoom in.

(btw...not really jumping on you - just wanted to point out that map)

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Most long range data is showing a different pattern for mid September.

what different pattern for mid-september are you talking about?

<RICKY>

Long range 500 pattern.

[Galvestongirl]

Ineteresting, however, I really feel like, my area of texas will not get anything this year.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I hope we don't either..

[VeniceInlet]

"We are long, long overdue."

There is no such thing as overdue when it comes to hurricanes. You may go another 50 years without one or you may get three the same year (god forbid).

[SETXweatherwatcher]

Southerngale, I'm with you there - we didn't have the storm surge that Holly Beach had - but the wind/tornado damage was bad enough at a Cat 3.


Please explain long range 500 pattern, as best you can...trying to learn something here.

[Wx_Warrior]

WHo's long overdue? Refresh me?

[Portastorm]

Southerngale -- yeah, you're right and I should have used a different wording. No question that Orange/Beaumont/Port Arthur all experienced a "direct hit" from Rita even if y'all were on the west side of the storm. Doesn't matter because another 20 miles west and the eyewall would have rolled over your area. As someone who is still involved with hurricane disaster relief to that area through my work, I should have known better!

VeniceInlet -- Actually, there is such a thing as "overdue." According to averages, Texas gets a major (Cat 3, 4, or 5) every 6.4 years. I can say we have had 2 "majors" hit us in 23 years ... that tells me we are way under average and what I would categorize as "overdue." That is what I meant!

[SETXweatherwatcher]

What is long range 500 patterns?

[WeatherEmperor]

What is long range 500 patterns?

Yes this is my question as well. Basically, what steering patterns are we going to be looking at in the future from the model run that was posted?

<RICKY>

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Long range 500 patterns are what the atmosphere looks like according to models well in advnace at the mid and upper levels.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Most long range data is showing a different pattern for mid September.

what different pattern for mid-september are you talking about?

<RICKY>

haven't looked at it today but the GFS was showing a strong high extending all the way into the Gulf meaning that any tropical system that develops in the Atlantic or Caribbean would move west into the western Gulf. We'll see if it pans out. Thats a long ways out.

[WeatherEmperor]

KFDM, do any of the other global models also support this strong high that the GFS is depicting?

<RICKY>

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Haven't looked at others yet. I'll try later tonight.

[wxmann_91]

Not going to verify.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f384.gif

[KatDaddy]

It will be interesting to see what happens next week when the E US trough lifts out. The Central Atl should be moving into the S GOM after the Labor Day weekend.

[Deputy Van Halen]

Portastorm wrote:
Actually Texas' populated areas have not experienced a direct hit by a major hurricane since 1983. We are long, long overdue.

Last year Rita technically made landfall in the far southwestern corner of Louisiana but left severe damage in far east and southeast Texas. In 1999, Hurricane Bret hit Kenedy County and killed some cows and that was it. There have been several Cat-1s and borderline 2s ... but not a MAJOR since Alicia in 83.


Yes, we are. Alicia damaged Houston and it was really bad.

As a fellow metro-Houstoner I'm also watching all these indicators closely. One thing to keep in mind about tropical storms here. The last direct hit by a TS was Allison (2001). The last direct hit by a hurricane was Jerry (1989). The last direct hit by a major was Alicia (1983). What do these three storms have in common? They didn't come from the Caribbean or Atlantic. THEY ALL FORMED IN THE GULF!

Bottom line: even if the parade of waves off Africa all turn into "fish", and all the models show that anything in the Caribbean would head north or east, we're not safe, and we can't count on a lot of warning time.