Questions About Computer Forecast Models

[dougjp]

I'm not sure answers are possible here, maybe only from those running the models, however I wonder about the Global models especially:

- Has the data input and their interpretation of it remained static over the years since creation, or being constantly redesigned based on error experience and contributing factors to those errors?

- Do any models incorporate topography data and deal with interaction of a storm with land? It seems to me there are too many short term forecasting "surprises" for this to be so, eg: Ernesto and Haiti, Ivan in '04 southerly jog by Jamaica, seemingly because of the influence of the Blue mountains.

- Do any models incorporate and interpret the effect of a forming low pressure system ahead of a storm?

- Are there any new global models under development?

Other topic, NHC expressed surprise Ernesto didn't develop more before Florida. Observations by people in Holguin and Guardalavaca Cuba said there was little surface wind. Perhaps Ernesto's starting point was not the Tropical Storm indicated at that time while over eastern Cuba, but a TD, and from that point it did develop as much as could be expected? Just a thought.

[Scott_inVA]

I'm not sure answers are possible here, maybe only from those running the models, however I wonder about the Global models especially:

- Has the data input and their interpretation of it remained static over the years since creation, or being constantly redesigned based on error experience and contributing factors to those errors?
No. Yes.

- Do any models incorporate topography data and deal with interaction of a storm with land? It seems to me there are too many short term forecasting "surprises" for this to be so, eg: Ernesto and Haiti, Ivan in '04 southerly jog by Jamaica, seemingly because of the influence of the Blue mountains.
Yes.

- Do any models incorporate and interpret the effect of a forming low pressure system ahead of a storm?
Yes.

- Are there any new global models under development?
Yes.

Other topic, NHC expressed surprise Ernesto didn't develop more before Florida. Observations by people in Holguin and Guardalavaca Cuba said there was little surface wind. Perhaps Ernesto's starting point was not the Tropical Storm indicated at that time while over eastern Cuba, but a TD, and from that point it did develop as much as could be expected? Just a thought.

I would agree with your comment: IMO, Ernesto was not a TC over Cuba.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA