#7 forecast #1:Gordon by Mon.-Tues.

[Josephine96]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #7
1145 PM SUN SEPT 10TH 2006

Tropical Depression #7 officially formed late Sunday near the Antilles. Although a weak TD now.. due to slow movement, and an apparent decent center.. he may strengthen tonight. Needing 9 mph {39 plus} to become Tropical Storm Gordon, which would be the 7th tropical storm.

The big question is will he go west or will he make a quick turn and follow his "sister" Flo Jo, a Cat 1 almost 2 hurricane about to whack Bermuda.

The NHC turns wannabe Gordon before 65 West. I'll go out on a limb and not by this. Due to his weak status, it may allow him to move further west. Plus the NHC isn't even completely sure of the quick and sharp NW jog.

My official forecast has him slowly progressing westward with no forecast of a turn yet since I'm not buying the NHC scenario. This because I believe the storms weakness and atmospheric conditions may keep him moving westward.

Here's my experimental 5 day on #7:
Rest of tonight: Forming, gaining an identity. Crawling westward. Max winds: 35 mph {5 am}
Monday: Becoming Gordon sometime during the day.. slowly westward. Max winds: 45 mph
Tuesday:Possible TS advisories for Puerto Rico, Haiti and DR. Maybe slight strenghtening. Max winds: 50 mph
Wednesday:Passing North of PR.. Watching carefully in extreme Eastern Bahamas. Max winds: 55 mph
Thursday: Possibly turning. If not.. watching carefully in Florida and SE coast. Max winds: 60 mph

Track and intensity forecasts are subject to change as well as errors. Some by as many as 100's of miles..

Comments and thoughts welcomed please..

[gpickett00]

Most of it sounds good, except i dont know about it being 45mph by tomorrow. I have a feeling that this one will be one that is more difficult to track than normal.

[Josephine96]

It's already starting that way.. he's only moving 6 mph right now..

[BatzVI]

Forgot the Virgin Islands.....will get us before Puerto Rico....

[fci]

I totally respect you for putting out your thoughts on the board.
It takes guts and courage.
Your arguement is cogent and well thought out.

I don't agree with your outlook and go with what the Pro Mets have said but congratulate you on stepping out with your thoughts.
I also "hope" that you are incorrect too!

Good Job and keep puttin them out there!

[Josephine96]

thank you.. We'll see what happens.. Remember.. "Gordon" has liked the state of Florida a lot lately lol..