Wher will Helene go??What do you think?

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carve
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Wher will Helene go??What do you think?

#1 Postby carve » Thu Sep 14, 2006 8:36 am

Just a little poll to see where Helene may go.
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Evil Jeremy
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#2 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Sep 14, 2006 8:39 am

right now, anywhere!
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#3 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Sep 14, 2006 8:39 am

Helene will make a wnw to west heading across the Atlantic and I think she turns, it won't be till she's closing in on the US.. I actually think she can make it most of the way across..
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#4 Postby beachbum_al » Thu Sep 14, 2006 8:55 am

She is a woman and there is no telling where she will go. You know us women can't make up our minds. :lol:

Actually I think she will go more West than the predictions and than turn more North. The question is when will she turn North. Right now I think I will just watch and listen to our pro mets on here.
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#5 Postby Bonedog » Thu Sep 14, 2006 8:57 am

maybe follow the path of the Great 1938 New England Hurricane!!
Image[/img]
Last edited by Bonedog on Thu Sep 14, 2006 8:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#6 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 14, 2006 8:57 am

It's amazing how many people want to defy a clear recurve scenario.

There's another brick wall trough over the east coast. Helene is starting to lift right now.
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#7 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:02 am

i dont think that it is moving northerly at all. in fact, i cant even locate a center right now!
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#8 Postby x-y-no » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:13 am

Probability #1 is that she goes NE of the leeward islands and recurves out to sea, somewhere around 60W or so as her furthest west.

Probability #2 the Azores high keeps its strength north of her long enough to allow her to get under that weak mid-level ridging progged to be north of the leewrds. In that case, she impacts the leewards before recurving. She could also affect Bermuda and/or the Canadian maritimes in this scenario.


Those are the two realistic scenarios I see.
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#9 Postby fci » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:29 am

A total fish like her brother Gordon.
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#10 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:31 am

I'm 95% certain Helene is going fishing 8-)
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#11 Postby boca » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:34 am

As long as this pattern persists the US will not get hit from the east or southeast, but the GOM or caribbean is a different story. Helene is a fish storm. Bermuda might be a possible threat and thats a long shot.
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#12 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:37 am

boca wrote:As long as this pattern persists the US will not get hit from the east or southeast, but the GOM or caribbean is a different story. Helene is a fish storm. Bermuda might be a possible threat and thats a long shot.


Exactly while these CV systems are headed for the North Atlantic graveyard you have to be weary of the fact that the GOM and Caribbean are VERY open to business and now as we approach the later half of the season and especially October, we have to start paying attention to these areas.

Let me name two big Hurricanes that made landfall in Florida after Oct 15th:

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane - CAT 3 Oct
2005 Hurricane Wilma
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#13 Postby Steve » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:42 am

>>It's amazing how many people want to defy a clear recurve scenario.

Yup. Fortunately it'll be another yawner.

Steve
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#14 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:50 am

IIRC, wasn't the US's last Cape Verde hit Ivan or Jeanne in '04?
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#15 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:52 am

If I had to guess right now I'd say fish. However there is still a chance, be it a small one, that she could make it across.
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#16 Postby TampaSteve » Thu Sep 14, 2006 10:43 am

LAwxrgal wrote:IIRC, wasn't the US's last Cape Verde hit Ivan or Jeanne in '04?


That would be Ivan...Jeanne formed in the Caribbean.

Ivan had an ACE of 70...now that was a Cape Verde storm!
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Re: Wher will Helene go??What do you think?

#17 Postby TampaSteve » Thu Sep 14, 2006 10:46 am

carve wrote:Just a little poll to see where Helene may go.


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#18 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Sep 14, 2006 10:49 am

I know most people feel that tracking a real Us threat is more exciting, but -removed- won't make it happen- Helene won't make it pass 60 degrees without recurving- it's not rocket science- nothing will be there to push it west.
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