Fact789's Helene Forecast

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JonathanBelles
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Fact789's Helene Forecast

#1 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:52 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Currently my thinking of Tropical Storm Helene is that the ridge may build but not enough for helene to make it across the atlantic. Helene may be a threat to Bermuda or the Northeastern islands. the steerring currents bring it very close to the islands but a deep trough will pick it up and bring it close to bermuda or just to the east. Its a little early to forecast the direction after that but i think it will be in the general direction of the Azores.

For the next 5 days I think it will reach 100 mph +/-5mph at the end of the 5 days with a pressure approximently 988-990mb. it should continue at its current speed until it gets closer to the trough.

initial: 15.8n 41.4w
24 hrs: 13.6n 45.3 w
48hrs: 20.5n 49.6w
72hrs: 22.2n 54.0w
Subject to large errors:
96hrs: 23.4n 56.1w
120hrs: 24.3n 57.9w
144 hrs:26.2n 59.8w
168hrs: 28.3n 61.4 w

Image

comments and critisism welcome
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gpickett00
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#2 Postby gpickett00 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:58 pm

That looks plausible. Im glad that you aren't drawing arrows pointing to the US and calling for a strong cat 4!
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