I do not ordinarily like to speculate on long term guidance of a system because I am not sure how to diagnose large scale synoptics to see if they are reacting properly in their environment. Anyway, I am currently reflecting on the WV, NHC discussions and model guidance and I have come up with a short - mid term decision on my own part.
Currently located directly north of the ridge that is to the west and northwest of Helene is an Upper Level Low. This feature is extremely important to the short-med term guidance of the system. You can see this feature in the image below.
This feature is important to the track because it's currently scrunching down the ridge directly to the West and Northwest of Helene. As noted in the NHC discussion and on Water Vapor imagry this low instead of digging southeast as progged by the other models than the GFS, seems to be moving more Eastward.
Why is this feature is important you may be asking?
Well looking at the following image:
We see that it the flow from the Upper Low is pushing down on this ridge of High Pressure. Looking at the Vorticity as analyzed here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor2.html this low is also present in the mid-layer important to ridging.
If this Upper Level low digs in to the southeast, which we'll see more on the wv imagry after the eclipse. Then logically what will happen is that it will weaken the ridge to the west and northwest of the system. Allowing for Helene to move more NW in the short to mid term towards the weakness currently present between the highs to the W & NW and to the North and Northeast of Helene.
If the Low doesn't dig in to the Southeast this would have a direct impact as follows:
Ridging stays in place and causes a more westward motion in the short term. With the building ridge in front of the trough in the Mid West may have a chance to connect with the ridging off the Atlantic Coast, allowing for a more westerly motion until the trough breaks it down in the long range.
Below I have posted the 0300 UTC Mean Steering Layer flow.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
This is all thanks for reading.
If someone were to twist my arm and ask me for a long term track, at this point given the synoptics in the short and long range I would have to go with the two following tracks. However I will be very interested to see what type of trough the one in the mid-west ends up being as it marches eastward. Sharp or Broad?
