The East coast looks to be safe now

[storms in NC]

From what NWS out of Wilm has to say it looks like it would be very hard for a storm to hit the east coast and fla too for a few weeks. To many fronts coming though now.

FXUS62 KILM 191830
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON THE MOVE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL LIES TO OUR WEST NOW MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF ON MOVING THIS FEATURE
OFF THE COAST BY 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY. THE WRF CONTINUES TO BE THE
DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MORE ROBUST VERSION OF THE GFS FOR
POPS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO CURRENT RADAR LOOPS
...WHICH ARE MOSTLY VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. THE BEST
OMEGA...COMPRISED MAINLY OF 500-300MB DYNAMICS...PASSES QUICKLY
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS AS EVEN THE MAV GUIDANCE POPS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE 1200 UTC NUMBERS.

VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST FINALLY OFF THE
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. PW/S DROP FROM OVER TWO INCHES TONIGHT TO
LESS THAN AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
AMONG GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS...WHICH WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S THURSDAY
MORNING AND HIGHS IN THE 70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF
850MB COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID-LEVELS BOGS DOWN A BIT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS 500MB RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT AS A POTENT SHORT-WAVE DROPS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART LIFTED TO HIGHER DECKS. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING CU FIELDS MAY ACQUIRE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO
OCCASIONALLY BE A CIG BUT GENERAL VFR SHOULD CONTINUE. TSRA WILL BE
FIRING WELL TO THE NW AND MAY BE IN THE VC THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT BEST COVERAGE TO BE WITH ACTUAL FROPA. CLEARING
SHOULD BE FARILY RAPID POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.




&&

.MARINE...
GFS/WRF SIMILAR IN FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AT THE COAST AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RULE BY 12Z WED THOUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INITIALLY. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE BY WED EVENING
HOWEVER SPEEDS IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20
KT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THU. THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE WITH HINTS OF A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH BY THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

WAVE HEIGHTS VARY FROM AROUND 4 FT...LIKELY HIGHER AWAY FROM THE
COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...DOWN TO AROUND 3 FT INSHORE.
SPECTRAL PLOTS AT THE FRYING PAN BUOY INDICATE A DOMINANT WIND
WAVE...A PRIMARY SWELL AROUND 10 SECONDS AND A VERY LOW POWER LONG
PERIOD SWELL AROUND 14 SECONDS. THE SWELLS FROM HELENE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...SRP




[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

I think a scenario similar to Hurricane Opal isn't out of the question, but the overall steering pattern will probably be north and east, keeping the EC clear except perhaps for another graze of the Outer Banks.

[EDR1222]

As it gets later in the month however and toward October, you still have to be on guard for possible storms forming in the Northwest Carribean.

Those October storms can be the worst for areas like South Florida because many times there is not alot of time to prepare.

[Noah]

You can tell by the amount of people on here that there is no US threat for a while.

I am no psychic...but my guard has been down for a while.

I feel glad the season is almost over and come october..i really relax.

I know that storms form this time of year and it would be a west coast of florida threat.

I am soooo glad this year that no big one came to florida.. I say that as i live here.. but for the reast of th USA,,im glad for them too!

[angelwing]

I'm not relaxing till Dec 1st, it's always quiet before the storm!

[Jim Cantore]

I'm not relaxing till Dec 1st, it's always quiet before the storm!

I wouldn't feel safe on december 1st anymore.

[Cyclenall]

I'm not relaxing till Dec 1st, it's always quiet before the storm!

I wouldn't feel safe on december 1st anymore.

Why is that? No storms in december have caused grief for a number of years.

[Jim Cantore]

It's bound to happen eventually

besides, we get Nor'easters

[MGC]

EC in the clear? Not really. Always the chance of a system developing in the NW Carb and tracking up the EC. It is getting to be that time of the year....MGC

[Scorpion]

With the strong troughiness this year I would definitely be on my guard still if I was on the East Coast. The chances for a Caribbean former going up the coast are very high.