CrazyC83's Helene Forecast #19 - Drastic change - out to sea

[wxmann_91]

That is what the board is for to let us learn what was right and wrong so next time we can do better

Exactly, that was the point of my post.

[marcane_1973]

All the models now are clustered together which will take helene much East of Bermuda and since Helene looks more disorganized today she will probably be a strong Cat 2 very soon and will only have time to maybe strengthen back into a Cat 3 storm again. Her chances of becoming our first Cat 4 storm this year would be compared to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers making it to the playoffs.

[wxwatcher91]

The intensity forecast is a little high but I wouldnt rule out cat 4 either. IMO, you track forecast is way too far east. If you look at the map below you will see there is no way Helene will make it past 65W.

[CrazyC83]

Right now I think so too. Thanks for the graphic. The jet stream will surely save the East Coast.

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Helene Prediction #19

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The eyewall replacement cycle that weakened Helene today is almost complete, but not quite. Helene remains somewhat asymmetric and the eyewall is not perfectly shaped. The Dvorak estimates are consistently around 100 kt except for the 125 kt rogue estimate from CIMSS, although a NOAA flight found somewhat weaker winds. The initial intensity is set at 100 kt in agreement with most Dvorak estimates.

The eyewall cycle took longer than expected, but once done, Helene should re-strengthen somewhat over the next 36 hours before cooler water begins to weaken Helene. The track has also shifted well to the right, passing to the east of Bermuda. It remains to the left of the NHC forecast until it becomes extratropical in the long term.



Current - 24.6/54.8 - 955mb - 115mph
12 hrs - 25.4/55.5 - 947mb - 125mph
24 hrs - 26.3/56.4 - 941mb - 135mph
36 hrs - 28.1/57.3 - 938mb - 140mph
48 hrs - 30.7/57.5 - 940mb - 135mph
60 hrs - 32.7/56.5 - 949mb - 120mph
72 hrs - 35.8/54.0 - 957mb - 110mph
96 hrs - 42.2/47.2 - 968mb - 90mph - Transition to Extratropical
120 hrs - 48.2/36.4 - 966mb - 80mph - Extratropical

[Bane]

I think you're going to definitely lower your intensity estimates now. She will never reach cat 4 status.

[SouthFloridawx]

I would say your new forecast should definitely not be a call for a Cat 4 now. You have constantly overestimated the last few storms and your intensity forecasts are much high than they should have been. You have not answered anyone's questions as to what your using. You have soley based your intensities on just the Dvorak estimate which is not a wise decision.

If you are going to post a forecast you are up for criticizm and furthermore we're just asking for you to explain your reasoning.



PS: Not trying to be critical or mean just trying to understand where you are coming from. I re-read that and it kind of sounded harsh.