Possible system off east coast?

[Meso]

Some models are showing a system coming up north from bahamus area and then developing off the east coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp24.png

[storms in NC]

FXUS62 KMHX 220725 AAA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SFC RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF THE SERN
U.S. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD SLIP EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR A
RTN TO SSW FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS AND INCREASE IN MSTR AND SW FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. SIG UPPER LOW OVER TE PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO
THE NNE WITH BEST JET SUPPORT REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OF THE RGN TO JUST AHEAD OF/WITH/ AND JUST
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RGN LATE SUN/EARLY
MON. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON TIMING JUST A BIT THIS FORECAST
CYCLE WITH GFS STILL THE MOST CONSISTENT. FOR THIS REASON GFS
TIMING WAS PREFERRED OVER NAM.

TEMPS SHOULD WARM EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BEST WARM UP TODAY
AND SATURDAY. INCREASING LOW LVL MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
AS MUCH OVERNIGHT. OVERALL GOING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS SEEMS IN ORDER.

WILL MENTION CHC POPS LATE SUN OVER ALL BUT NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS
WITH PCPN MOVING INTO THOSE AREAS LATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY JUST BEFORE THEN BUT AT THIS POINT
ITS A BIT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...FRONT APPROACHES LATE
SUN NIGHT AND SLIDES THROUGH THE CWA BY MON AFTN. LATEST GFS IS A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PUSHES THE FRONT THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND POP CHANCES EARLIER MON
AFTN WITH ALMOST NOTHING IN THE EARLY EVNG. HAVE MADE A MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS PCPN CHANCES MON EVNG THIS
FORECAST. WITH GENERAL NW FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LVLS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND HIGH SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE RGN THINK GOING COOLING
TEMPS LOOK GOOD. ALSO THINKING NOT AS MUCH CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED
LOW CLOUDS BEHIND FRONT. SOME HINTS STILL AT SFC LOW TRYING TO
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK THEN LIFT NORTH BUT IT APPEARS
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS NOW TAKING PLACE TOO FAR OFF SHORE TO AFFECT
WEATHER OVER LAND.

[Meso]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif

Looks like the nam is also showing something N. of P.R at 84 hours