Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

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SouthFloridawx
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Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#1 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 28, 2006 12:36 pm

Here is another blob that we could be talking about. It looks a little more healthy than 97L. There is a wave trailing right behind it, if not already very close to the convection. We'll find out what the 205 Says.

There is good upper Level Divergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

LL Convergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Windshear remains light in front of this area.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

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#2 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Sep 28, 2006 12:48 pm

I agree if we can get a little lattitude here...this may go..had the Signature of a nice wave..
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#3 Postby boca » Thu Sep 28, 2006 12:51 pm

Its heading right into S America or drifting that way.
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#4 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 28, 2006 1:00 pm

I knew somebody would mention this. Way too far south.
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#5 Postby Anthonyl » Thu Sep 28, 2006 1:08 pm

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH
CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

Given the recent trends this would not be difficult to gian lattitude.
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#6 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 28, 2006 2:18 pm

This is a wave that I'd pay attention to. It's far enough south to not get steered north into the open Atlantic. Such a wave moving across the southern Caribbean to the area north of Panama and east of Nicaragua could develop south of the ridge in 5-7 days. Prime spot for late season development.
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#7 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 28, 2006 2:20 pm

wxman57 wrote:This is a wave that I'd pay attention to. It's far enough south to not get steered north into the open Atlantic. Such a wave moving across the southern Caribbean to the area north of Panama and east of Nicaragua could develop south of the ridge in 5-7 days. Prime spot for late season development.


I stand corrected! It's amazing how far south these waves have to be this year to avoid all of the weakness that dominates the northern atlantic.
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#8 Postby SWFLA_CANE » Thu Sep 28, 2006 2:48 pm

Looks more impressive then 97L.
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#9 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Sep 28, 2006 2:57 pm

boca wrote:Its heading right into S America or drifting that way.


Mike Watkins covered this on a recent show, or perhaps a post here. It's not going to whack into South America. It looks that way, but these end up gaining latitude just fine.
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#10 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 29, 2006 1:08 pm

its firing up gain and has indeed gained some lattitude and is forecasted to traverse the Caribbean:

Note its position between Puerto Rico and SA in 72 hours:
Image
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#11 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 29, 2006 2:53 pm

bump, should we not change the title?
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#12 Postby TheRingo » Sat Sep 30, 2006 12:03 pm

some convection increase now.

12:15pm
Image

2:15pm
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#13 Postby hial2 » Sat Sep 30, 2006 3:03 pm

Way too much shear for it to develop at this time, IMO
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