Models showing possible future system in atlantic

Meso · #1 Postby **Meso** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 6:32 pm

Hmmm... The GFS is seeing something NW of the african coast in the middle of the run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

CMC also showing

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp21.png

MM5

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/mm5fsu ... /slp18.png

NOGAPS too

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/nogaps ... /slp23.png

#2 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 6:34 pm

i saw that too. the GFS shows it going in circles for a while! lol!

#3 Postby **curtadams** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 6:44 pm

GFS forecasts a hybrid system http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/92.html

NOGAPS says it's a cold-core continuation of an existing system in the tough off the east coast http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 12/30.html

Cyclenall · #4 Postby **Cyclenall** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 6:51 pm

I saw this as well when checking the models. Almost all of the models are hinting at a Low doing something weird near Africa. I didn't know if it would be hybrid, tropical or non-tropical.

#5 Postby **TheEuropean** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 7:31 pm

I saw something on our side of the atlantic a few days ago in one model, now nearly all the models are showing this low. I think this may be a system like Vince or crazy Epsilon, first under a cold low, than becoming subtropical or tropical...

#6 Postby **curtadams** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 7:59 pm

TheEuropean wrote:I saw something on our side of the atlantic a few days ago in one model, now nearly all the models are showing this low. I think this may be a system like Vince or crazy Epsilon, first under a cold low, than becoming subtropical or tropical...

I so wish we could get recon into one of those. Won't happen with these tracks, though.

#7 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:02 pm

I mentioned this potential STS in another thread. Could well be something that would be named by the NHC. No threat to anywhere but the eastern Atlantic islands, though.

#8 Postby **TheEuropean** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:07 pm

wxman57 wrote:I mentioned this potential STS in another thread. Could well be something that would be named by the NHC. No threat to anywhere but the eastern Atlantic islands, though.

And don't forget Spain and Portugal. Last year there was some flooding in southern Spain because of the remnants of Vince.

#9 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:54 pm

when you are talking about something maybe in the vicinity of Spain an Portugal by next week, you know the North Atlantic is full of weaknesses this hurricane season. Wow, what a huge difference from 2004 when everything was west. :roll:

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 29, 2006 12:57 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

12z GFS is still showing that system.I say still because other models dont show it at the 12z run such as UKMET,NOGAPS and CMC.

#11 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Sep 29, 2006 2:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006092912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

12z GFS is still showing that system.I say still because other models dont show it at the 12z run such as UKMET,NOGAPS and CMC.

Cycloneye, I don't know what model runs you're looking at, but itt shows up on all the models you mentioned.

Here's the 12Z NOGAPS:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=084

12Z Canadian shows it developing late Saturday/Sunday as well:
http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgen ... 2/slp9.png

12Z UKMET shows it clearly as well:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/20 ... 2/slp7.png

EC shows it clearly, too.

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 29, 2006 2:30 pm

wxman57,I looked at the wrong runs from them :roll:

,but yes all show it in dfferent scenarios.

Thunder44 · #13 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Oct 01, 2006 10:18 am

013
ABNT20 KNHC 011514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN OCT 1 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 930 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THE
SYSTEM SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

#14 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sun Oct 01, 2006 10:47 am

Thunder44 wrote:013
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THE
SYSTEM SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

This is another system. This thread ia about a new system forming in eastern atlantic near the canaries oder the azores.

Thunder44 · #15 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Oct 01, 2006 11:01 am

TheEuropean wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:013
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THE
SYSTEM SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

This is another system. This thread ia about a new system forming in eastern atlantic near the canaries oder the azores.

Oh, I see. My bad

Models showing possible future system in atlantic

Models showing possible future system in atlantic

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