Extratropical Isaac Advisories

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tropicana
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#41 Postby tropicana » Mon Oct 02, 2006 7:03 pm

POST-TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 PM NDT
MONDAY 02 OCTOBER 2006.

A FINAL STATEMENT WITH STORM SUMMARY INFORMATION
WILL BE ISSUED AT 12.30 AM NDT


... POST-TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WILL MOVE EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND
WATERS TONIGHT...


AT 9.30 PM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 49.2 N AND LONGITUDE 49.0 W... ABOUT 200 MILES
OR 325 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF ST JOHNS NL . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 996
MB. ISAAC IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 36MPH... 57 KM/H.

WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. THESE WARNINGS WILL BE ENDED OVERNIGHT.

POST-TROPICAL ISAAC IS BEING LOCATED BY SURFACE MARINE DATA AND
POSITIONED NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD. INTENSITY IS
AN ESTIMATE BASED ON SURFACE DATA.

ISAAC HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF AS A SEPARATE ENTITY THROUGHOUT ITS
TRANSITION INTO THE MID LATITUDES...AS PREDICTED BY MANY OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AS EARLY AS THE END OF LAST WEEK.

B. PROGNOSTIC
OUR FORECAST TRACK IS BASED EXCLUSIVELY ON KINEMATIC TECHNIQUES
AND FOLLOWING THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT MOVES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SINCE A COUPLE OF
MODELS MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WE FEEL IT
PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN IT AT 50-KT STRENGTH UNTIL IT LEAVES THE CHC
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
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#42 Postby tropicana » Tue Oct 03, 2006 5:34 am

POST-TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 12.30 AM NDT TUESDAY 03 OCTOBER 2006.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ON ISAAC.

AT 12.30 AM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 49.8 N AND LONGITUDE 47.2 W... ABOUT 300 MILES
OR 475 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF ST JOHNS. NL. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
EAST NORTHEAST AT 39MPH... 63 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 50MPH...83 KM/H AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 997 MB.

IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTRE FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY..SO
THE POSITION IS ESTIMATED BY EXTRAPOLATING THE PAST MOTION. THIS PUTS
THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM ISAAC JUST EAST OF THE FUNK ISLAND
BANK MARINE DISTRICT. SOME SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE LINGERING
OVER EASTERNMOST NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS.

THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC PASSED APROXIMATELY 28 MILES/ 45 KM
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OF
OCTOBER 2ND. ISAAC WAS MOVING VERY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44MPH/ 70 KM/H. THE STORM CIRCULATION WAS VERY SMALL AND STRONG WINDS
WERE CONFINED ONLY A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE. THE
STORM HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60MPH (92 KM/H) AND A
CENTRAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 993 MB AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA. RAIN FROM ISAAC QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AVALON
BUT DID NOT EXTEND BEYOND TRINITY AND PLACENTIA BAYS. ISAAC WAS
STILL IN ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE PHASE WHEN IT PASSED BY THE AVALON AS
SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY. THERE WAS A RAIN-FREE AREA NEAR THE CENTRE..
PERHAPS INDICATING THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM'S EYE.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAND WERE REPORTED AT CAPE RACE WHERE GUSTS
REACHED 60MPH/ 96 KMH WITH HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46MPH/ 74 KM/H. A PEAK WIND
OF 47MPH/ 76 KM/H WAS REPORTED AT A PRIVATE WEATHER STATION ON CAPE PINE
ABOUT 19 MILES/ 30 KM WEST OF CAPE RACE. BECAUSE OF THE COMPACT CIRCULATION OF
THE STORM AND ITS RAPID FORWARD MOTION..WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER OVER
MOST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST WIND GUST AT ST. JOHN'S
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 35MPH/ 54 KM/H. PEAK WINDS FROM AN OFFSHORE
BUOY SOUTH OF THE STORM REACHED 65MPH OR 104 KM/H.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC WERE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 25 MM DUE TO ITS RAPID FORWARD MOTION AND DIMINISHING AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. THE HIGHEST MEASURED RAINFALL WAS 26 MM AT CAPE RACE. 19 MM
WAS MEASURED AT THE CAPE PINE LOCATION AND ONLY 10 MM IN THE ST.
JOHN'S AREA.

FORECASTING THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE STORM WAS VERY CHALLENGING..AS
ARE MOST TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES MOVING INTO OUR REGION. GIVEN
THAT ISAAC WAS STILL A STRONG TROPICAL STORM VERY NEAR THE AVALON
PENINSULA..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS. IF THE STORM HAD TRACKED ONLY 50 TO 100 KM FARTHER NORTH
THE ST JOHN'S AREA WOULD HAVE EXPERIENCED MUCH STRONGER WINDS. ISAAC
ALSO MOVED FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED..THUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WERE LESS THAN FORECAST.

LAST ADVISORY



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#43 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:22 am

AWCN16 CWHX 030229
SPECIAL WEATHER SUMMARY MESSAGE FOR NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR ISSUED
BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 11:59 PM NDT MONDAY 2 OCTOBER 2006.

THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC PASSED APROXIMATELY 45 KM
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OF
OCTOBER 2ND. ISAAC WAS MOVING VERY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR
70 KM/H. THE STORM CIRCULATION WAS VERY SMALL AND STRONG WINDS
WERE CONFINED ONLY A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE. THE
STORM HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS (92 KM/H) AND A
CENTRAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 993 MB AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA. RAIN FROM ISAAC QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AVALON
BUT DID NOT EXTEND BEYOND TRINITY AND PLACENTIA BAYS. ISAAC WAS
STILL IN ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE PHASE WHEN IT PASSED BY THE AVALON AS
SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY. THERE WAS A RAIN-FREE AREA NEAR THE CENTRE..
PERHAPS INDICATING THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM'S EYE.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAND WERE REPORTED AT CAPE RACE WHERE GUSTS
REACHED 96 KMH WITH HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 74 KM/H. A PEAK WIND
OF 76 KM/H WAS REPORTED AT A PRIVATE WEATHER STATION ON CAPE PINE
ABOUT 30 KM WEST OF CAPE RACE. BECAUSE OF THE COMPACT CIRCULATION OF
THE STORM AND ITS RAPID FORWARD MOTION..WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER OVER
MOST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST WIND GUST AT ST. JOHN'S
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 54 KM/H. PEAK WINDS FROM AN OFFSHORE
BUOY SOUTH OF THE STORM REACHED 56 KNOTS OR 104 KM/H.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC WERE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 25 MM DUE TO ITS RAPID FORWARD MOTION AND DIMINISHING AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. THE HIGHEST MEASURED RAINFALL WAS 26 MM AT CAPE RACE. 19 MM
WAS MEASURED AT THE CAPE PINE LOCATION AND ONLY 10 MM IN THE ST.
JOHN'S AREA.

FORECASTING THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE STORM WAS VERY CHALLENGING..AS
ARE MOST TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES MOVING INTO OUR REGION. GIVEN
THAT ISAAC WAS STILL A STRONG TROPICAL STORM VERY NEAR THE AVALON
PENINSULA..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS. IF THE STORM HAD TRACKED ONLY 50 TO 100 KM FARTHER NORTH
THE ST JOHN'S AREA WOULD HAVE EXPERIENCED MUCH STRONGER WINDS. ISAAC
ALSO MOVED FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED..THUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WERE LESS THAN FORECAST.

END/FOGARTY


Source:

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/bulleti ... 119.txt.en
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