Atlantic ITCZ

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Sanibel
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Atlantic ITCZ

#1 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 05, 2006 3:27 pm

There are two dry disturbances currently in the CV belt that have a very remote chance of forming, but should be watched. The one furthest west is too dry and sheared, but the one closer to Africa is at the right latitude. Worth watching anyway because low years can sometimes produce unexpected systems.
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#2 Postby Dynamic » Thu Oct 05, 2006 7:25 pm

The NHC talks about these two waves in their 8:05PM TWD. Nothing special, just some cyclonic turning noted in the central atlantic.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MAINLY
AHEAD OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 43W-50W...PARTICULARLY BEHIND THE
WAVE AXIS.
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#3 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:55 pm

Both waves appear to be moving into strong westerly wind shear. I think the CV season has shut down. Time to look farther west for possible development.
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#4 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Oct 07, 2006 8:21 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Damn, that is alot of deep convection! Imagine if this was over favorable conditions right now.
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#5 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 07, 2006 10:27 pm

It's weird the way macro-weather patterns work. Sometimes if a theatre is suppressed long enough it will rebound with a late season burst.
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#6 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:45 am

The wave east of the Lessers has some sign of trying to organize but is being beaten down by that large, dry upper feature and shear.
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