does any know whats going on?

[weatherwoman]

hey had anyone heard JB this week, he is talking about a storm on the east coast for the weekend if i understand correct not a hurricane but a storm any one have any ideas on this

[wxman57]

Most models are forecasting a subtropical/hybrid storm to form off the east U.S. coast this weekend. It could start out cold core associated with an upper low but there is a chance it could transition to warm core with time. Regardless, it could make conditions rough along the Mid Atlantic Coast from Friday-Monday with strong onshore flow, rough seas, and tides above normal.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

GFS SHOWING POSITIONAL CONTINUITY WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN
NC BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OUTER
BANKS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER SOUTH...DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WFO ILM/S FORECAST AREA SAT-SUN BEFORE KICKING EAST.

From: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php ... =ILMAFDILM

[mitchell]

hey had anyone heard JB this week, he is talking about a storm on the east coast for the weekend if i understand correct not a hurricane but a storm any one have any ideas on this

His column this morning is an interesting read. Yes, he is concerned about a storm forming off the Virginia and intensifying. A few scenarios are described some better some worse for the Delmarva/Hatteras. High lunar tides isn't giong to help matters.

[gatorcane]

Looks like JB could be partially correct with the Bahamas system

[Thatsmrhurricane]

The plot thickens . . .

LONG TERM /SUNDAY AND MONDAY/...
DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT TREMENDOUSLY BULLISH IN DEVELOPING A
SURFACE CYCLONE. THIS MAY BE A FAILING OF THE MODELS AS SUFFICIENT
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FIRING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW TO LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURES AND _POSSIBLY_ INDUCE SOME SORT OF HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. EFFECTS FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY BE LIMITED
TO ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND PERHAPS A LARGER INCOMING
SWELL...PARTICULARLY IF THIS THING STRENGTHENS TO THE GALE OR STORM
CATEGORY. AT THIS TIME HAVE INCREASED OUR SUSTAINED WINDS TO
NORTHERLY 15-20 KT SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THESE
WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE MAINLY OFFSHORE SO HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN SEAS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY CHANGE IF LATER INDICATIONS ARE
OF A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SURFACE CYCLONE.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php ... =ILMAFDILM

[storms in NC]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006


MID TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
TWO SEPARATE BUT INTERTWINED WEATHERMAKERS EXPECTED IN THE MID
TERM. FIRST THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SLOWING IT DOWN SOMEWHAT...AND THERE IS DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE UPPER
FORCING LAGS BEHIND SLIGHTLY. TAPERED POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE ALONG
THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY TO LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING ABOUT A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN TEMPS DUE TO FRONTAL TIMING...
FROM THE LOW 70S IN NW COUNTIES TO 80ISH ALONG THE COAST.

FROM FRI NIGHT ON A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE CAROLINAS.
STILL MORE THAN A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS OF HAVING SUCH A STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM AND NO MORE SFC REFLECTION THAN A WEAK NW-SE ORIENTED TROF
WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE EDGED TOWARD THE LOW SIDE OF POSSIBLY CLIMO-BIASED
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE MAY
STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM ROUGHLY OVERHEAD.
WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...THEN RAMP BACK UP TO
HIGH CHANCE IN THE COASTAL NC ZONES SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIPS
TO OUR SOUTH AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A BETTER MOISTURE FEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR SAVANNAH SUNDAY
MORNING. A DEEP ONSHORE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM
WILL CREATE OVERRUNNING ON TOP OF THE SHALLOW DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT HAVE CHANGED FORECAST
POPS VERY LITTLE AT THIS TIME...PENDING ANOTHER FEW MODELS RUNS TO
SEE IF INCREASES WILL BE NEEDED ALONG THE COAST.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT THAT TIME. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PASSES OVER THE
CAROLINAS. BY THURSDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR
SHOWERS....BUT TIMING ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN. HAVE HELD POPS AT ONLY A SILENT 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

[storms in NC]

this low is about to come off the Ga coast. How close will it come up the coast?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecwv.html

[krisj]

We had a really bad storm last night. I wonder if that was it?

[storms in NC]

Yes it was. bad here too