Tropical Depression 02F in SouthPac

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Coredesat

Tropical Depression 02F in SouthPac

#1 Postby Coredesat » Tue Oct 24, 2006 8:45 pm

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Tropical Depression 02F [1004HPA] near 11S 176W moving west 10 knots.
Position poor and based on MTSAT IR/VIS animation. SST in the area is
about 28C. 02F is embedded in an easterly trough and is currently
being propagated westwards. Deep convection persists around the
centre and at this stage there is a strong likelihood of multiple low
level centres. 02F is located under the 250 hPa subtropical ridge in
an area of strong diffluence. Environmental shear is minimal. Global
models have picked up the system and steer it westwards but show
reluctance in developing it. The potential for 02F to develop in a
tropical cyclone is low to moderate in the next 24 to 48 hours.
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Coredesat

#2 Postby Coredesat » Tue Oct 24, 2006 8:47 pm

And the JTWC has this as a fair area:

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1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.9S 176.1W,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241709Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS
DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT
OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE, WHICH IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW.
UW-CIMSS PRODUCTS INDICATE AREA IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE CON-
SOLIDATING CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
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#3 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Oct 24, 2006 9:38 pm

in that blob where is the depression?
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#4 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 25, 2006 5:23 am

This is east of the Date Line.
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Coredesat

#5 Postby Coredesat » Wed Oct 25, 2006 7:03 pm

Image

Looks like that's all she wrote:

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Tropical Depression 02F [1007HPA] near 10S 179E moving west 10 knots.
Position poor and based on MTSAT VIS animation. SST in the area is
about 28C. 02F has lost all deep convection and the LLC is difficult
to locate. It has become separated from the southeasterly surge on
the southern side which had been the forcing mechanism for
development. It continues to lie under the 250 subtropical ridge with
minimal environmental shear. Global models are weakening the system.
The potential for 02F to develop in a tropical cyclone in the next 24
to 48 hours is now low.
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