Any way you slice it..

Aquawind · #1 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 5:43 am

Music to my ears in SW Florida! 8-)

I hope it becomes reality! Of course we know Wilma was not the last system so the rest of the basin is still open for debate.

ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...SUCH A FRONT WILL FINISH OFF ANY CHANCE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE 2006 SEASON...SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAPPENED A YEAR AGO WITH THE SHARP FRONT THAT FOLLOWED WILMA. STAY
TUNED.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

#2 Postby **Downdraft** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 2:50 pm

Like it or not one look at the basin and you know you can stick a fork in 2006 cause it's done. I for one am not disappointed at all. Not a single dire forecast from the global warming folks came to pass, even those storms that did form did not become the monsters they thought, the people on the Gulf coast get another year to rebuild, the Atlantic coast gets another year to be complacent and nature returns to balance. Ah, 2006 was such a good year!

#3 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 3:03 pm

I can't find your quote in the NWS discussion

#4 Postby **fci** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 3:13 pm

I also don't see it in the discussion but presume that is an assumption that is made with the passage of the first real cold front.

However, last year after Wilma and the first real front we still had Epsilon which "briefly" posed a threat to Florida before it pooped out in the Carib.

IF the statement above is true, which I suspect it is; then we really will have the many times mentioned "Season Cancel".

Which would please me to no end as we apprach the anniversary of Wilma and the havoc she brought on to us. :eek:

#5 Postby **AnnularCane** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 3:17 pm

However, last year after Wilma and the first real front we still had Epsilon which "briefly" posed a threat to Florida before it pooped out in the Carib.

I don't remember Epsilon doing that. :cheesy:

Aquawind · #6 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 5:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:I can't find your quote in the NWS discussion

previous 03 :wink:

#7 Postby **hial2** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 5:54 pm

[quote="Downdraft"]Like it or not one look at the basin and you know you can stick a fork in 2006 cause it's done.

Althiugh I basically agree with the statement, I'll still be watching until the last day in November....because neither the NHC or the NWS (are they the same?)is infallible..I've lived long enough to know that anything can happen, and anything happens usually when you least expect it.

Oh, i forgot...this is for Gatorcane.. :eek:

#8 Postby **fci** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 5:58 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
However, last year after Wilma and the first real front we still had Epsilon which "briefly" posed a threat to Florida before it pooped out in the Carib.

I don't remember Epsilon doing that.

My error, I meant to say "Gamma", not Epsilon.
Thanks for catching it.

#9 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 12:43 pm

Hey Paul - I don't think that last cold front was quite enough - check what is approaching the Eastern Caribbean - and a summer-like Bermuda High is building in to the north. Water temps plenty warm enough through all of the Caribbean Southern GOM and FL straits....shear has finally relaxed to what it should have been in Aug/September and no TUTT lows to worry about this time.

Aquawind · #10 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 5:31 pm

gatorcane wrote:Hey Paul - I don't think that last cold front was quite enough - check what is approaching the Eastern Caribbean - and a summer-like Bermuda High is building in to the north. Water temps plenty warm enough through all of the Caribbean Southern GOM and FL straits....shear has finally relaxed to what it should have been in Aug/September and no TUTT lows to worry about this time.

Fine be that way ya big meanie! :cry:

Any call over a month before the end is no doubt premature.. :wink:

Records are made to be broken.. :eek:

wxmann_91 · #11 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 9:00 pm

gatorcane wrote:Hey Paul - I don't think that last cold front was quite enough - check what is approaching the Eastern Caribbean - and a summer-like Bermuda High is building in to the north. Water temps plenty warm enough through all of the Caribbean Southern GOM and FL straits....shear has finally relaxed to what it should have been in Aug/September and no TUTT lows to worry about this time.

93L has a TUTT shearing it pretty badly.

Shear map: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Don't get fooled by the 5 kt over the eastern Carib; that's directly under the TUTT. I see that there are no overly favorable areas in the Caribbean, and with the bomb developing over the Great Lakes, a front will sweep down across the GOM again.

#12 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 9:08 pm

its not a TUTT low though.

wxmann_91 · #13 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 2:08 am

It's an upper level trough. Not favorable.

WV loop really does tell the story. Quoting someone, it has the "chaotic" look. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

DanKellFla · #14 Postby **DanKellFla** » Sun Oct 29, 2006 7:47 am

Aquawind, what kind of front was it and why would it finish off the chance for a significant tropical storm?

I did notice that around that time, the dewpoint dropped a bit and got much more comfortable. Which, in the 20+ years I have lived in South Florida signals the end of "our" season.

tbstorm · #15 Postby **tbstorm** » Sun Oct 29, 2006 12:07 pm

The El Nino's really crankin the Subtropical Jet across the Gulf from FLA to TX. I really don't think this any threat to the gulf; even 93L gets going it would be ripped apart by the jet stream.

Aquawind · #16 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Oct 29, 2006 4:52 pm

Aquawind, what kind of front was it and why would it finish off the chance for a significant tropical storm?

That was a quote from the TBW weather office.
It was simply the strongest cold front yet this year. We got more rain from this weekends front.. Dewpoints rose for a couple days after and have now dropped again. With lows in the mid-upper 60's this week at least we will have some moisture in the lower levels.. But the clear skys are a sign it will be pretty dry in the mid-upper levels. Water Vapor looks real dry.. 8-)

Although we could use the rain.. Beuatiful day today. I don't think it was that front alone but a sign of more frontal passages and that is not good for development. Water temps were around 80F untill this weekends front. There is certainly still a slight chance of carribean development and it could get pulled into the Gulf but nothing significant with all of the dry air and fronts.

Opal storm · #17 Postby **Opal storm** » Sun Oct 29, 2006 6:25 pm

I can't believe this season is already coming to a close with November approaching and a winter atmosphere already coming in.This season went by so quick.Before we know it we'll be counting down to June 1st 2007.

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 29, 2006 6:29 pm

Opal storm wrote:I can't believe this season is already coming to a close with November approaching and a winter atmosphere already coming in.This season went by so quick.Before we know it we'll be counting down to June 1st 2007.

Countdown to June 1 2007

The countdown is on.

#19 Postby **AnnularCane** » Sun Oct 29, 2006 7:57 pm

Only 214 shopping days till hurricane season! :lol:

Frank2 · #20 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 2:13 pm

It's still Oscar Mayer (couldn't resist)...

Have a good winter, everyone...

Frank

Any way you slice it..

Any way you slice it..

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