Bay of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm Ogni

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 80.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 80.7E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE INDIAN COAST.
A 282007Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS NOW OVER WATER WITH
A WEAK BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW ALOFT DUE TO A 500 MB SHORTWAVE SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IMPROVED STORM STRUCTURE, AND
OVER-WATER POSITION, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

Dvorak: 2.0

Really nice looking disturbance that is really close to the coast.

[Jim Cantore]

I think very well organized might be an understatment

[P.K.]

BOB 10/2006/02 Dated : 29th October, 2006

Subject: Depression over Bay of Bengal

A depression over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1130 IST of today, the 29th October 2006 near Lat. 14.50 N and Long. 80.50 E, about 50 kms east of Nellore. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada by tonight.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places is likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls are also likely over north Tamilnadu coast during the same period.

Squally winds with speed reaching 55-65 kmph are also likely along and off Coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours.

The state of Sea is likely to be rough to very rough along and off Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu coasts. The Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.

[P.K.]

Upgraded.

BOB 10/2006/03 Dated : 29th October, 2006

Subject: Depression over Bay of Bengal intensifies into a deep depression (Orange Message)

The depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwards and intensified into a deep depression. It lay centred at 1430 IST of today, the 29th October 2006 near Lat. 15.00 N and Long. 80.50 E, about 50 kms east of Kavali. The system is likely to intensify further. It is likely to continue to move in a northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada by tonight.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places is likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and also adjoining districts of Telangana during next 24 hours.

Squally winds with speed reaching 65-75 kmph are also likely along and off districts of central coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours.

The state of sea is likely to be very rough to high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast. The Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.

[Chacor]

WTIO21 PGTW 291130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/291121ZOCT2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 80.3E TO 18.1N 81.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 290830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 80.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N
80.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 80.6E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE INDIAN COAST.
A 290817Z AMSRE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS NOW OVER WATER
WITH A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT
FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 35 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, IMPROVED STORM STRUCTURE, AND OVER-WATER POSITION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
301130Z.//


Now named Ogni from RSMC Delhi, although my list says next name Helen.

[P.K.]

Helen is column five in the operational manual, Ogni is the first in column two which is the next one to be used.

[Chacor]

I'll have a look at the list again, this one is obviously wrong then. Cheers.

[P.K.]

BOB 10/2006/04 Dated : 29th October, 2006

Subject: Deep Depression over Bay of Bengal intensifies into a Cyclonic Storm, OGNI (Red Message)

The deep depression over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and intensified into a cyclonic storm (OGNI). It lay centred at 1730 IST of today, the 29th October 2006 near Lat. 15.00 N and Long. 80.50 E, about 50 kms east of Kavali. It is likely to continue to move in a northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongole and Kakinada by tonight.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and also adjoining districts of south Telangana during next 24 hours.

Gale winds with speed reaching 70-80 kmph are also likely along and off districts of central coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours, damaging thatched huts, breaking tree branches and causing minor damages to power and communication lines.

Storm surge will be 1.0-1.5 meters above astronomical tide near the point of landfall.

The state of sea is likely to be high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast. The Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.

[HURAKAN]

BOB 10/2006/05 Dated : 29th October, 2006

Subject: Cyclonic Storm ‘OGNI’ over Bay of Bengal (Red Message)

The cyclonic storm ‘OGNI’ over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 2030 IST of today, the 29th October 2006 near Lat. 15.00 N and Long. 80.50 E, about 50 kms east of Kavali. It is likely to move in a northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongole and Kakinada by midnight or tomorrow early morning.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and also adjoining districts of south Telangana during next 24 hours.

Gale winds with speed reaching 70-80 kmph are also likely along and off districts of central coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours, damaging thatched huts, breaking tree branches and causing minor damages to power and communication lines.

Storm surge will be 1.0-1.5 meters above astronomical tide near the point of landfall.

The state of sea is likely to be high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast. The Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.

[JonathanBelles]

how many storms have they had this year.?

[HURAKAN]

So far, six.

[P.K.]

Three cyclonic storms from 12 depressions (Two in the Arabian Sea, ten in the Bay of Bengal).

[P.K.]

TC ADVISORY
-----------
DTG: 20061029/1200Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: OGNI
NR: 01

PSN: N1500 E08030
MOV: N02KT
C: 988 HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT
FCST PSN+12 HRS: 300000 N 1530 E 08000

MAX WIND+12 HRS: 50KT

NEXT MSG: 20062910/1800Z

[P.K.]

TC ADVISORY
-----------
DTG: 20061029/1800Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: OGNI
NR: 02

PSN: N1530 E08030
MOV: N04KT
C: 1000 HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT

FCST PSN+12 HRS: 300600 N 1600 E 08030
MAX WIND+12 HRS: 35KT

NEXT MSG: 20063010/0000Z

[P.K.]

Down to a deep depression.

FKIN20 VIDP 301050

TC ADVISORY
-----------
DTG: 20061030/0600Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: OGNI
NR: 04

PSN: N1542 E08018
MOV: NNW04KT
C: 1002HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT


NEXT MSG: 20061030/NO MSG

[Chacor]

http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.htm as of 0900, a depression, having made landfall.

BOB 10/2006/11 Dated: 30th October, 2006


Subject: Deep Depression over Bay of Bengal – Crossed the coast and further weakened into a depression.



The deep depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal crossed the coast near Bapatla around 1300 hrs IST today the 30th October 2006 and weakened into a depression with its centre at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 30th October, 2006 near lat. 15.8 deg N and long. 80.3 deg E about 25 kms southwest of Bapatla. The system is likely to move in a north-northwesterly direction and weaken further.



Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Prakasam, Guntur, Krishna, west and east Godavari districts of coastal Andhra Pradeesh and adjoining Khammam and Nalgonda districts of Telangana during next 24 hrs.



Squally winds speed reaching 45-50 kmph are likely along and off districts of Prakasam, Guntur and Krishna during next 12 hrs.





The state of sea is likely to be rough along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours. The Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.

[Coredesat]

That's all, folks:

Subject: Depression weakening into a well marked low pressure area.

The depression close to Bapatla in Andhra Pradesh further weakened into a well marked low pressure area. It lies at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 30th October, 2006 over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and neighbourhood.

Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Prakasam, Guntur, Krishna, west and east Godavari districts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Khammam and Nalgonda districts of Telangana during next 24 hrs.

This is the last bulletin for this system.