GFS,NOGAPS,CMC,UKMET - Southwest Caribbean Development?

[Blown Away]

ABNT20 KNHC 142229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[gatorcane]

poof

[Aquawind]

poof

I don't think a Cheesy even formed yet to poof.. But you can poof anyways..

[cycloneye]

18z GFS



Nothing in SW Caribbean

But this run shows a low pressure forming near the Bahamas,go figure .I will not post anymore about the SW Caribbean thing.

[hurricanetrack]

What an amazing contrast to last season when everything that could, did. This year, not so much. Still, this keeps it fresh and interesting. The nay-sayers look to be right this time- and the Bar-b-crow will be sizzling hot for folks like me who jumped in feet first to the whole "models cannot be wrong when in 100% agreement". Ouch.

[MiamiensisWx]

I wouldn't really count on southwest or western Caribbean development through the next 84 to 96 hours or more roughly. I'm not surprised at all the models dropped the phantom low development, as mid-level synoptics were rather unfavorable for slow development from the start (such as mid-level low synoptics and excessive drier air limiting convective organization), and with the excessive middle to upper-level westerlies, aided by some subtropical jet influence and other factors favoring continuing shear across the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean, little chance for future development likely exists.

Unless we see some frontal subtropical development in the deeper western or central Atlantic or eastern Caribbean vicinity (most likely not affecting the mainland CONUS due to the persistent troughiness), which I am far from discounting, the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season is most likely over; thus, this leads me to my final prognosis (just for the United States, however, as the Caribbean Greater and Lesser Antilles and Bermuda may be affected by some subtropical or mildly tropical frontal development moving northeast)...

Season (most likely) cancel.

[cycloneye]

What an amazing contrast to last season when everything that could, did. This year, not so much. Still, this keeps it fresh and interesting. The nay-sayers look to be right this time- and the Bar-b-crow will be sizzling hot for folks like me who jumped in feet first to the whole "models cannot be wrong when in 100% agreement". Ouch.

I also caved into the consensus posting with enthusiasm the runs from all the models so I will also eat crow. In other years rather than 2006,for sure the SW Caribbean would and in the past years haved give birth to one or more systems in late seasons.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I never bought into the solutions depicted by the global and esemble model guidance for this phantom low system southwest Caribbean development. The overall mid-level synoptics, as well as synoptic features in the nearby eastern Pacific, indicated an ubfavorable southern mid-level jet forcing and intrusions of the westerlies and shortwaves over the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean, thus resulting in stiff mid-level and upper-level shear across much of the west-central and western Caribbean Sea.

Now, I still think we may see one more storm this year (named), but I doubt it will affect the mainland United States. The consistent troughiness, middle to upper-level shearing lows, and aforementioned unfavorable shearing synoptics will prevent any more United States landfalls, much less subtropical development or TC formation in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean, and any lows that form in that region for the remainder of the season and beyond may most likely be phasing events (i.e., extratropical phasing lows) merging with shortwaves.

I think the most likely chance for one more development this year of tropical or subtropical formation (and it most likely won't affect the CONUS mainland) is an Odette, Philippe, or Epsilon/Zeta-type scenario of subtropical frontal original forming in the central or eastern Caribbean, east of the Lesser Antilles, or in the deep western or central Atlantic that eventually moves northeast, most likely affecting the Greater Antilles, Leeward Islands, Bahamas, or briefly Bermuda, but never threaten the United States.

[SouthFloridawx]

That's a rather good sumation of the situation that unfolded in 6 pages of comments... thanks Daniel.