hurrican force winds expected in gulf stream tue-wed

[cpdaman]

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtbltn ... anz088.txt

started new thread because i thought this was pretty rare, and deserved a little more attention now that it is almost imminent

but can someone expain to me how this storm is forming or from what

there is a "vigorous" ull diving south out of canada and spinning up a low off the NE fl/ GA coasts

or somewhere in that area cause other forecast said somewhere NE of the bahamas it would form so i just wondering which area this is supposed to develop from

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Right now the main player ( the kicker if you will) that is going to touch off the surface low, is actually an Upper Level Trough over South-Central North America; i.e. what is commonly called a Short Wave, or mobile Trough. Here it is as depicted on the OPC Upper Level chart in 24hr:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hr500bw.gif

Another thing that is fulling this storm is that a Huge Ridge of High Pressure at all levels of the atmosphere over New England will keep it from moving North, and bugle down into it's circulation field creating a steep gradient between the two. At the same time the low is vertically stacked, and will become cut off from the main Mid-Latitude Jet stream flow. Also you have a high Fall Tide occurring this week, and the direction of the projected wind blowing against the main flow of the Gulf Stream. As well as the fact that the surface low might entrain a tropical wave in the Caribbean, but that remains to be seen yet.

Basically a “Perfect Storm” like scenario. With everything coming together.


Hope that help you out.

[hial2]

Right now the main player ( the kicker if you will) that is going to touch off the surface low, is actually an Upper Level Trough over South-Central North America; i.e. what is commonly called a Short Wave, or mobile Trough. Here it is as depicted on the OPC Upper Level chart in 24hr:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hr500bw.gif

Another thing that is fulling this storm is that a Huge Ridge of High Pressure at all levels of the atmosphere over New England will keep it from moving North, and bugle down into it's circulation field creating a steep gradient between the two. At the same time the low is vertically stacked, and will become cut off from the main Mid-Latitude Jet stream flow. Also you have a high Fall Tide occurring this week, and the direction of the projected wind blowing against the main flow of the Gulf Stream. As well as the fact that the surface low might entrain a tropical wave in the Caribbean, but that remains to be seen yet.

Basically a “Perfect Storm” like scenario. With everything coming together.


Hope that help you out.

Aside from a couple of pros (MWatkins,et al) this is the most professional explanation of a probable occurrence I have read in this forum!! BRAVO

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Thanks a million.

I have worked on several projects for the Offices here (in both New Brunswick and Maine, and pitched in through them with the Hurricane Reanalysis Project), and have my BSC. My Parents really want me to go back to school, and finish my Pro Met training. I'm torn if I should or not; it is a lot of time (a couple more years, longer if I want a PhD) to invest though.

[cpdaman]

yes i second that thanks u broke it down nicely

and i see the 930 pm update maintains hurricane force winds in the gulf stream tue-wed in the coastal water's off south carolina

p.s what is going on with the moisture from sergio being entrained into the gulf (at least as higher levels) and do u suspect this will play a part or the moisture in the nw carib as well . what are you thoughts hybrid especially regarding the sergio influence(if any)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'd say it could maybe (some of the moisture) get entrained into the Trough, and resulting Surface Low. Most of the models (at least last night when I last checked) are not really picking up on this though, but it could indeed play a role.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here is another fact that is KEY for a major Extratropical, or Hybrid, storm to happen:

00Z Upper Level Winds - http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_00.gif

The coming together, or phasing, of the Subtropical and Mid-Latitude (or sometimes called Arctic) Jet Streams. Basically it denotes that very different airmass as well as strong upper level winds to "exhaust" the storm are occurring. These factors remove the air that is being spit out at the upper levels faster, and thus allow the storm to replace it with new air from the surface more quickly; increasing the speed of the whole circulation, or energy exchange, cycle.