Tropical Cyclone Yani 04F in South Pacific (JTWC: 02P)
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It looked like it was ready to rapidly strengthen last night but it was another one of those storms that don't do anything for like 16 hours and remain the same. Then they just explode after that out of nowhere and continue. This storm could do that based off the appearance and past 24 trends.
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Hurricane wind warning.
WHPS01 NFFN 230000
Hurricane Warning 015 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 23/0111 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [980hPa] centre was located near 12.7 South 162.9 East at
230000 UTC.
Position fair.
Repeat position 12.7S 162.9E at 230000 UTC.
Cyclone currently slow moving but expected to gradually turn towards the west.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre increasing to 65 knots in
the next 12 hours.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern
semicircle
and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern
semicircle.
Forecast position near 12.6S 162.5E at 231200 UTC
and near 12.9S 161.7E at 240000 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 014.
WHPS01 NFFN 230000
Hurricane Warning 015 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 23/0111 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [980hPa] centre was located near 12.7 South 162.9 East at
230000 UTC.
Position fair.
Repeat position 12.7S 162.9E at 230000 UTC.
Cyclone currently slow moving but expected to gradually turn towards the west.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre increasing to 65 knots in
the next 12 hours.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern
semicircle
and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern
semicircle.
Forecast position near 12.6S 162.5E at 231200 UTC
and near 12.9S 161.7E at 240000 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 014.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 23/0154 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 2] 04F [980hPa] centre was located near
12.7S 162.9E at 230000 UTC currently slow moving but expected to turn
west. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS/EIR imagery with
animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 55 knots
increasing to 65 knots in the next 12 hours. Winds over 47 knots
within 30 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of
centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre
in the northwest semicircle.
Organisation steadily increasing. Indications of an eye on Vis and IR
imageries. Outflow good to south and west but restricted elsewhere.
Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 1.0 on log10 spiral yielding
strong DT=3.5, MET and PAT agree. Final T based on DT thus
T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone lies just south of a 250-hPa ridge axis
in a divergent and weak-shear region. SST around 28-29C. Yani
expected to move west under strong mid level ridge to east and south.
Global models generally agree on a westward track with gradual
intensification.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid 231200UTC near 12.6S 162.5E mov WNW at 02kt with 65kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid 240000UTC near 12.9S 161.7E mov W at 03kt with 70kt close
to centre.
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 241200UTC near 13.3S 160.9E mov WSW at 03kt with 75kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 250000UTC near 13.6S 159.6E mov WSW at 04kt with 80kt
close to centre.
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued
around 230800 UTC.
Nov 23/0154 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 2] 04F [980hPa] centre was located near
12.7S 162.9E at 230000 UTC currently slow moving but expected to turn
west. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS/EIR imagery with
animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 55 knots
increasing to 65 knots in the next 12 hours. Winds over 47 knots
within 30 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of
centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre
in the northwest semicircle.
Organisation steadily increasing. Indications of an eye on Vis and IR
imageries. Outflow good to south and west but restricted elsewhere.
Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 1.0 on log10 spiral yielding
strong DT=3.5, MET and PAT agree. Final T based on DT thus
T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone lies just south of a 250-hPa ridge axis
in a divergent and weak-shear region. SST around 28-29C. Yani
expected to move west under strong mid level ridge to east and south.
Global models generally agree on a westward track with gradual
intensification.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid 231200UTC near 12.6S 162.5E mov WNW at 02kt with 65kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid 240000UTC near 12.9S 161.7E mov W at 03kt with 70kt close
to centre.
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 241200UTC near 13.3S 160.9E mov WSW at 03kt with 75kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 250000UTC near 13.6S 159.6E mov WSW at 04kt with 80kt
close to centre.
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued
around 230800 UTC.
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REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 162.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (YANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES ANCHORED
TO THE WEST AND TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHILE AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
AUSTRALIA WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS PROCESS SHOULD
ALLOW THE EASTERN RIDGE TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE OVER TIME AND STEER THE SYSTEM IN A GENERALLY SOUTH-
WARD DIRECTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS REASONING
AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON THE MODELS DEPICTING ATYPICAL WESTWARD TRACKS. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY
THAN FORECAST IF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SPURS DEVELOPMENT A MORE
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AN
ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LATER IN THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD SHOULD ACT TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//
JTWC now says 95 kt in 48 hours.
230300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 162.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (YANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES ANCHORED
TO THE WEST AND TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHILE AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
AUSTRALIA WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS PROCESS SHOULD
ALLOW THE EASTERN RIDGE TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE OVER TIME AND STEER THE SYSTEM IN A GENERALLY SOUTH-
WARD DIRECTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS REASONING
AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON THE MODELS DEPICTING ATYPICAL WESTWARD TRACKS. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY
THAN FORECAST IF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SPURS DEVELOPMENT A MORE
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AN
ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LATER IN THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD SHOULD ACT TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//
JTWC now says 95 kt in 48 hours.
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WHPS01 NFFN 230000
Hurricane Warning 016 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 23/0243 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [970hPa] centre was located near 12.9 South 162.9 East at
230200 UTC.
Position good.
Repeat position 12.9S 162.9E at 230200 UTC.
Cyclone currently slow moving but expected to gradually turn towards the west.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 65 knots close to the centre increasing to 75 knots in
the next 12 to 24 hours.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre
over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern
semicircle
and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern
semicircle.
Forecast position near 12.6S 162.5E at 231200 UTC
and near 12.9S 161.7E at 240000 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 015.
Now hurricane-force 10-minute winds.
Hurricane Warning 016 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 23/0243 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [970hPa] centre was located near 12.9 South 162.9 East at
230200 UTC.
Position good.
Repeat position 12.9S 162.9E at 230200 UTC.
Cyclone currently slow moving but expected to gradually turn towards the west.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 65 knots close to the centre increasing to 75 knots in
the next 12 to 24 hours.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre
over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern
semicircle
and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern
semicircle.
Forecast position near 12.6S 162.5E at 231200 UTC
and near 12.9S 161.7E at 240000 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 015.
Now hurricane-force 10-minute winds.
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WTPS11 NFFN 230600
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 23/0738 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [965hPa] centre was located near
13.1S 163.0E at 230600 UTC. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS/EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but
expected to turn towards southwest in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 70 knots increasing to
80 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30
miles of centre, and winds above 47 knots within 50 miles of centre,
and winds above 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the
southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the
northwestern semicircle.
Organisation steadily increasing. Ragged eye is again becoming cloud
filled on both EIR and VIS imageries. Outflow good to south and west
and fair elsewhere. Dvorak based on Eye Pattern yielding 5.0 with a
white eye with black surrounds. This yields a DT=5.0, MET=5.0 and
PAT=4.5. Final T based on PT thus T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone lies
just south of a 250-hPa ridge axis in a divergent and weak-shear
region. SST around 28-29C. Yani currently steered south by a
mid-level ridge pushing from the east but is however expected to
eventually drift west under strong mid level ridge to south. Global
models generally agree on a southwestward track with gradual
intensification.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid 231800UTC near 14.0S 162.7E mov SSW at 05kt with 75kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid 240600UTC near 14.5S 162.1E mov SW at 05kt with 80kt
close to centre.
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 241800UTC near 14.8S 161.2E mov WSW at 05kt with 85kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 250600UTC near 15.3S 160.0E mov WSW at 06kt with 85kt
close to centre.
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued
around 231400 UTC.
70-kt 10-minute winds.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 23/0738 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [965hPa] centre was located near
13.1S 163.0E at 230600 UTC. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS/EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but
expected to turn towards southwest in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 70 knots increasing to
80 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30
miles of centre, and winds above 47 knots within 50 miles of centre,
and winds above 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the
southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the
northwestern semicircle.
Organisation steadily increasing. Ragged eye is again becoming cloud
filled on both EIR and VIS imageries. Outflow good to south and west
and fair elsewhere. Dvorak based on Eye Pattern yielding 5.0 with a
white eye with black surrounds. This yields a DT=5.0, MET=5.0 and
PAT=4.5. Final T based on PT thus T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone lies
just south of a 250-hPa ridge axis in a divergent and weak-shear
region. SST around 28-29C. Yani currently steered south by a
mid-level ridge pushing from the east but is however expected to
eventually drift west under strong mid level ridge to south. Global
models generally agree on a southwestward track with gradual
intensification.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid 231800UTC near 14.0S 162.7E mov SSW at 05kt with 75kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid 240600UTC near 14.5S 162.1E mov SW at 05kt with 80kt
close to centre.
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 241800UTC near 14.8S 161.2E mov WSW at 05kt with 85kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 250600UTC near 15.3S 160.0E mov WSW at 06kt with 85kt
close to centre.
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued
around 231400 UTC.
70-kt 10-minute winds.
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Coredesat
Hurricane Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 23/1907 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [960hPa] centre was located near 13.8 South 163.0 East at
231800 UTC.
Position good.
Repeat position 13.8S 163.0E at 231800 UTC.
Cyclone moving towards the south at about 04 knots but is expected to gradually
turn towards the south-southwest.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 75 knots close to the centre increasing to 85 knots in
the next 12 to 24 hours.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre
over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern
semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle.
Forecast position near 14.5S 162.7E at 240600 UTC
and near 15.2S 162.4E at 241800 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 018.
Now up to 75 kt, pressure down to 960 hPa.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [960hPa] centre was located near 13.8 South 163.0 East at
231800 UTC.
Position good.
Repeat position 13.8S 163.0E at 231800 UTC.
Cyclone moving towards the south at about 04 knots but is expected to gradually
turn towards the south-southwest.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 75 knots close to the centre increasing to 85 knots in
the next 12 to 24 hours.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre
over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern
semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle.
Forecast position near 14.5S 162.7E at 240600 UTC
and near 15.2S 162.4E at 241800 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 018.
Now up to 75 kt, pressure down to 960 hPa.
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Coredesat
And here's the actual TC advisory:
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 23/1957 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [960hPa] centre was located near
13.8S 163.0E at 231800 UTC. Position good based on HRES MTSAT EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but
expected to gradually turn south-southwest. Maximum 10-minute average
winds estimated at 75 knots increasing to 85 knots in the next 24
hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above
47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within
120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90
miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle.
Organisation steady past 6 hours. Ragged cloud-filled eye still
clearly evident on EIR imagery. Outflow good to south and fair
elsewhere. Dvorak based on Embedded centre pattern with W surround
yielding DT5.0. MET and and PAT at 4.5. Final T based on DT thus
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone lies underneath a 250-hPa ridge axis in
a divergent region. Shear gradually increasing over system. SST
around 28-29C. A mid-level anticyclone to the east with an associated
ridge extending southwest is expected to steer Yani towards the
south-southwest. This will bring the cyclone into a region of
stronger shear and cooler SSTs. Global models generally agree on a
south-southwest track with gradual intensification only in the short
term.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid 240600UTC near 14.5S 162.7E mov SSW at 04kt with 75kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid 241800UTC near 15.2S 162.4E mov SSW at 04kt with 85kt
close to centre.
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 250600UTC near 16.1S 162.0E mov SSW at 04kt with 75kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 251800UTC near 17.3S 161.5E mov SSW at 05kt with 60kt
close to centre.
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued
around 240200 UTC.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 23/1957 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [960hPa] centre was located near
13.8S 163.0E at 231800 UTC. Position good based on HRES MTSAT EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but
expected to gradually turn south-southwest. Maximum 10-minute average
winds estimated at 75 knots increasing to 85 knots in the next 24
hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above
47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within
120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90
miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle.
Organisation steady past 6 hours. Ragged cloud-filled eye still
clearly evident on EIR imagery. Outflow good to south and fair
elsewhere. Dvorak based on Embedded centre pattern with W surround
yielding DT5.0. MET and and PAT at 4.5. Final T based on DT thus
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone lies underneath a 250-hPa ridge axis in
a divergent region. Shear gradually increasing over system. SST
around 28-29C. A mid-level anticyclone to the east with an associated
ridge extending southwest is expected to steer Yani towards the
south-southwest. This will bring the cyclone into a region of
stronger shear and cooler SSTs. Global models generally agree on a
south-southwest track with gradual intensification only in the short
term.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid 240600UTC near 14.5S 162.7E mov SSW at 04kt with 75kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid 241800UTC near 15.2S 162.4E mov SSW at 04kt with 85kt
close to centre.
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 250600UTC near 16.1S 162.0E mov SSW at 04kt with 75kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 251800UTC near 17.3S 161.5E mov SSW at 05kt with 60kt
close to centre.
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued
around 240200 UTC.
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WTPS11 NFFN 240000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 24/0131 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [960hPa] centre was located near
14.2S 163.1E at 240000 UTC. Position good based on HRES MTSAT EIR/VIS
imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but
expected to gradually turn south-southwest. Maximum 10-minute average
winds estimated at 75 knots decreasing to 55 knots in the next 24
hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above
47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within
120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90
miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle.
Cyclone rapidly weakening under strengthening shear. Eye no longer
discernible on EIR but still evident on VIS. Convection warmed
considerably past 4 hours. Outflow fair to south and restricted
elsewhere. Dvorak based on Embedded centre pattern with LG surround
yielding DT4.5. MET=3.0 and PAT =3.5. Final T =4.0, thus
T4.0/5.0/W1.5/24hrs. A mid-level ridge to southeast is expected to
steer Yani towards the south-southwest, into stronger shear and
cooler SSTs. Global models generally agree on a south-southwest
track.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid 241200UTC near 15.1S 162.9E mov SSW at 04kt with 65kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid 250000UTC near 15.9S 162.5E mov SSW at 04kt with 55kt
close to centre.
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 251200UTC near 16.7S 161.9E mov SSW at 05kt with 30kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 260000UTC near 17.3S 161.0E mov SSW at 05kt with 20kt
close to centre.
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued
around 240800 UTC.
No more intensification expected.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 24/0131 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [960hPa] centre was located near
14.2S 163.1E at 240000 UTC. Position good based on HRES MTSAT EIR/VIS
imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but
expected to gradually turn south-southwest. Maximum 10-minute average
winds estimated at 75 knots decreasing to 55 knots in the next 24
hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above
47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within
120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90
miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle.
Cyclone rapidly weakening under strengthening shear. Eye no longer
discernible on EIR but still evident on VIS. Convection warmed
considerably past 4 hours. Outflow fair to south and restricted
elsewhere. Dvorak based on Embedded centre pattern with LG surround
yielding DT4.5. MET=3.0 and PAT =3.5. Final T =4.0, thus
T4.0/5.0/W1.5/24hrs. A mid-level ridge to southeast is expected to
steer Yani towards the south-southwest, into stronger shear and
cooler SSTs. Global models generally agree on a south-southwest
track.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid 241200UTC near 15.1S 162.9E mov SSW at 04kt with 65kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid 250000UTC near 15.9S 162.5E mov SSW at 04kt with 55kt
close to centre.
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 251200UTC near 16.7S 161.9E mov SSW at 05kt with 30kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 260000UTC near 17.3S 161.0E mov SSW at 05kt with 20kt
close to centre.
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued
around 240800 UTC.
No more intensification expected.
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The system now looks very, very bad. This is amazing:
490
TPPS10 PGTW 241206
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (YANI)
B. 24/1130Z
C. 13.5S/9
D. 161.4E/2
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.5/W2.5/24HRS STT: W1.0/06HRS (24/1130Z)
G. IR/EIR LLCC
70/PBO ANMTN. LLCC IS SHEARED 120NM FROM CNCVTN YIELDING
DT UNCLAS. PT IS 1.5. DBO PT. MET IS UNREP DUE TO RAPID
WEAKENING AT 2.5.
JAYKOSKI
DT unclassifiable? Rapid weakening, too! I've rarely seen a fix saying MET unrepresentative due to rapid weakening rather than rapid intensification (which we saw with Cimaron and Chebi)!
490
TPPS10 PGTW 241206
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (YANI)
B. 24/1130Z
C. 13.5S/9
D. 161.4E/2
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.5/W2.5/24HRS STT: W1.0/06HRS (24/1130Z)
G. IR/EIR LLCC
70/PBO ANMTN. LLCC IS SHEARED 120NM FROM CNCVTN YIELDING
DT UNCLAS. PT IS 1.5. DBO PT. MET IS UNREP DUE TO RAPID
WEAKENING AT 2.5.
JAYKOSKI
DT unclassifiable? Rapid weakening, too! I've rarely seen a fix saying MET unrepresentative due to rapid weakening rather than rapid intensification (which we saw with Cimaron and Chebi)!
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