CPC December ENSO Update=El Nino thru May 2007

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/

A kelvin wave will arrive by late December in the eastern pacific and that will be the peak of el nino.Interesting that the Australians (BoM) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) coincide on the peak period of el nino (December thru Febuary).The question is,will el nino fade away completly when the 2007 hurricane season starts on June 1.

[LarryWx]

Although on occasion an El Nino will continue into a second winter, historical statistically based odds do strongly favor that it would fade by no later than late spring or early summer. However, even in those cases, it sometimes returns for round two (i.e. a separate second El Nino) the following fall. Whether or not that occurs is totally up in the air this far away. However, based strictly on historical stats, even that scenario isn't favored simply since most falls/winters are not in an El Nino (under 30%). So, in summary, although still certainly possible, the historical odds favor that there won't be an El Nino for next fall/winter. But it is obviously way too early to be able to know the answer. The models have not been that great.

[cycloneye]

Although on occasion an El Nino will continue into a second winter, historical statistically based odds do strongly favor that it would fade by no later than late spring or early summer. However, even in those cases, it sometimes returns for round two (i.e. a separate second El Nino) the following fall. Whether or not that occurs is totally up in the air this far away. However, based strictly on historical stats, even that scenario isn't favored simply since most falls/winters are not in an El Nino (under 30%). So, in summary, although still certainly possible, the historical odds favor that there won't be an El Nino for next fall/winter. But it is obviously way too early to be able to know the answer. The models have not been that great.

The models have not been that great.

I coincide with your last sentence Larry.Truly the ENSO models were awful forecasting this years el nino as they didn't forecasted it to bloosom by August,when in reallity el nino showed it's head.Even before that month already strong signs pointed that el nino was developing.