Disturbed Weather in Bahamas from Lingering Trough

[gatorcane]

It's associated with a trough so don't get excited but this trough is supposed to linger for a few days. A setup like this 3 months from now with reduced UL winds may produce something here.

NHC TWD Thurs March 8th

WESTERN ATLANTIC...
SLIGHT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
ATLC W OF 50W EXTENDING SWD FROM A LARGE STRONG POLAR LOW. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING IN THE REGION
ANALYZED STATIONARY ALONG 32N46W 26N55W THEN DISSIPATING TO
26N66W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM BEHIND THE FRONT.
THICKER CLOUD COVER LIES FURTHER W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WHERE A
SFC TROUGH HAS FORMED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS
CLOUD COVER AS DEPICTED BY DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS
TROUGH IS LIKELY A RESULT OF ENERGY THAT BROKE OFF FROM THE
WEAKENING FRONT AND ENHANCED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE. SE OF THE
FRONT...SKIES ARE MAINLY FAIR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING FROM THE NE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. LOOKING AHEAD
A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE LARGE POLAR VORTEX WILL GRADUALLY PULL
EWD BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE SOME SUPPORT FOR THE WEAK SFC
TROUGH IN THE BAHAMAS. GFS SHOWS THIS FEATURE MERGING WITH A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE SE U.S. ON FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE W
ATLC.

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

Has anyone looked at the NAM at 84 hours, looks like a subtropical depression (maybe a TS). GFS shows it developing and moving north and getting stronger near Greenland.

[gatorcane]

Has anyone looked at the NAM at 84 hours, looks like a subtropical depression (maybe a TS). GFS shows it developing and moving north and getting stronger near Greenland.

interesting, can you provide a link?

[cycloneye]

Has anyone looked at the NAM at 84 hours, looks like a subtropical depression (maybe a TS). GFS shows it developing and moving north and getting stronger near Greenland.

interesting, can you provide a link?

Here is the link of the NAM model in a loop at 84 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

thanks Luis, the NAM is certainly predicting that a surface low forms NE of the Bahamas....interesting...

[Coredesat]

It looks very heavily sheared to me. Indeed, there's a ton of upper-level shear over it:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8wxc.GIF

Even the mid-level shear is unfavorable:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

[SouthFloridawx]

It looks very heavily sheared to me. Indeed, there's a ton of upper-level shear over it:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8wxc.GIF

Even the mid-level shear is unfavorable:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

"A ton", Of upper level shear is a understatement.

Looking at the upper-level wind forecast to 78 hours, it appears as though it should be more of the same.

Probably want to wait at least another month before trying to peg tropical development in the atlantic. If this la nina is indeed going to be around for summer, we'll have more than enough to have to try to keep an eye on.



[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_300_084m.gif[/web]

[gatorcane]

the UL winds are strong....but as each day goes by we are getting closer to that time of year where many more of us will be watching ...

[CrazyC83]

It looks very heavily sheared to me. Indeed, there's a ton of upper-level shear over it:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8wxc.GIF

Even the mid-level shear is unfavorable:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

That explains why storms don't form at this time of year even where water is warm. The only place that could possibly support a tropical storm right now is around Panama...

[JonathanBelles]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007

WESTERN ATLANTIC...
A LARGE AREA OF MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE SFC PATTERN
CONTRIBUTING TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
COMPLEX. LAST NIGHT...THE SETUP CONSISTED OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM N
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SWD
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NE OF THE
LOW. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...IT HAS BECOME APPARENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT THESE FEATURES HAVE MERGED TOGETHER AND
AS OF 06Z A COLD FRONT ENTERED THE AREA NEAR 32N44W TO 29N55W
THEN STATIONARY TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 26N72W. A TROUGH REMAINS
FAIRLY DISTINCT FROM THE LOW SWD TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ALL OF
THESE ELEMENTS ALONG WITH STRONG W-SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
GENERATING AND ADVECTING MOISTURE MAINLY N OF 24N W OF 50W.
HOWEVER...PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THIS ENTIRE
AREA. IR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 62W-70W WHERE LIFTING AND
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...ANOTHER
CONCERN IS THE STRONG NELY WINDS AS A TIGHT PRES GRAD HAS NOW
SET UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 38N64W. LOOKING
AHEAD IN TIME...THE WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK
TO THE NE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRAD FURTHER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND FOR THAT REASON A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR A
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR DETAILS REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFAT2.


Satellite.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

[JonathanBelles]

Bermuda Triangle?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/hiw ... testBW.gif