South-Central Indian Ocean: Invest 98S

[HURAKAN]

Getting a little better organized.

[Chacor]

387
WTIO30 FMEE 131207

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/13/20062007
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 13

2.A POSITION 2007/03/13 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6S / 77.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM):
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/14 00 UTC: 14.9S/76.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/03/14 12 UTC: 15.3S/76.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 15.7S/76.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 16.3S/76.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 17.1S/76.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 17.9S/75.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION ; THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FLUCTUATING. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE : 28/29 DEG SST, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND A
POTENTIAL GOOD OUTFLOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=

[HURAKAN]

Goin' south!

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 141211

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/13/20062007
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 13

2.A POSITION 2007/03/14 AT 1200 UTC :
16.3S / 75.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 17.1S/74.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 17.9S/74.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 18.4S/74.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 18.9S/73.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 19.3S/73.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 19.7S/73.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5+
LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL ELONGATED AND POORLY ORGANIZED
AROUND AN EXPOSED LLCC ; THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND
SCATTERED.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS NEUTRAL TO FAVOURABLE : 28/29 DEG SST, WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
LOWL EVEL INFLOWS SHOULD IMPROVE BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHAT SHOULD
INDUCE A MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THEIR FORECASTS OF
TRACK AND INTENSITY, SOME MAKING IT TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS, OTHER
SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS.

AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

[Chacor]

Upgraded to a disturbance.

WTIO30 FMEE 150622

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/13/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13

2.A POSITION 2007/03/15 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2S / 76.0E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/15 18 UTC: 18.3S/75.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/03/16 06 UTC: 19.5S/75.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/03/16 18 UTC: 20.7S/75.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2007/03/17 06 UTC: 20.7S/73.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2007/03/17 18 UTC: 20.1S/73.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2007/03/18 06 UTC: 20.8S/72.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL EXPOSED BUT ORGANIZATION
SEEMS TO IMPROVE ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT QUIKSCAT SWAT.
THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND TO INTENSIFY
GRADUALLY AFTER 24 HOURS, AS THE LOWER LAYER INFLOW IMPROVES. THE
NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT (BOTH TRACK AND
INTENSITY), FEW OF THEM TRACK THE SYSTEM MAINLY WESTWARDS, OTHERS
SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS. T
HE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS.

AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

[MississippiHurricane]

Compaired to the Atlantic Basin, is this part of the world more/less active in a normal season?

[P.K.]

Over the last 30 years slightly less in terms of named storms. However you need to remember some systems that might be named in the N Atlantic may only be considered TDs here due to differing wind averages.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 151239

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/13/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13

2.A POSITION 2007/03/15 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 76.3E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 18.8S/76.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 19.2S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 19.7S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 20.3S/76.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2007/03/18 00 UTC: 20.4S/75.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2007/03/18 12 UTC: 20.5S/75.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAK, SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR A SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND ARE NOT FORSEEN TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
THE NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT (BOTH TRACK AND
INTENSITY), FEW OF THEM TRACK THE SYSTEM MAINLY WESTWARDS, OTHERS
SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS.

AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.