GFS shows development by the 25th

[wxman57]

Looks like the earlier runs of the GFS were certainly over-doing it. This is not the last time we'll see this in 2007 but still, it is interesting to see. We have a few more days before this would have come and gone, so perhaps it will get going as advertised by the GFS recently. At least it won't affect any land areas, no matter what develops there.

It's just the GFS gearing up for the hurricane season. Most of its advertised storms never develop, maybe 5% do. The trick is determining which one of each 20 that does develop before-hand.

[Stormcenter]

I'll take that bet. In terms of Powerball, you have a 1 in 146,000,000 chance of winning. I would say that based on what most models are showing in the next few days, that the odds of a March named storm this year are quite a bit better than those of winning the lottery. Of course, it depends on which lottery you refer to. But if we use Powerball, it's 1 in 146,000,000 roughly. I would personally give this system a 1 in 500 chance of happening- that is- getting named by the NHC. I am biased though, as I think it would be kind of cool to see very early season development. Anyhow, that's my take- I think in this case the odds greatly favor a named storm in March over picking winning lottery numbers.

Great reply, thanks!