Tropical Wave in March?????

boca · #1 Postby **boca** » Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:40 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
233 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007

BY THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND NAM-12 SHOW A WEAK BUT
NOTABLE EASTERLY WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. GFS IS DISPLACED A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH...HENCE THE LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR
NOW...HAVE ELECTED TO UP CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH A BUFFER SILENT 10 PERCENT FROM TAMPA BAY
TO SARASOTA AND POINTS EAST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...HAVE CUT TEMPERATURES JUST
A HAIR...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM THAN GFS GUIDANCE

I didn't think it was possible to get a tropical wave in March.

Coredesat · #2 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue Mar 20, 2007 4:45 pm

They happen from time to time. Nothing to be concerned with, really.

#3 Postby **NDG** » Tue Mar 20, 2007 4:46 pm

I don't think this is a true authentic African tropical wave they are talking about, it must have originated from an old cold front or trough out in the Atlantic retrogating westward at the surface by the strong surface ridge east of the eastern US in Atlantic.

#4 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Mar 20, 2007 5:14 pm

Good eye boca... Although I would have to agree that it probably has something to do with the front.

[web]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif[/web]

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 9:15 pm

Perhaps but the easterlies have been very strong this year so far -- in fact the easterlies have dominated for the past several weeks. Right now along the coast in Boca Raton I'm seeing E winds at 20mph gusts to 29mph....lets see if the wave at the end of this week brings up those winds even higher....although the forecast is for them to drop down to 10-15mph by the end of the week.

I'm gearing up. I think this season will be active. It's just a hunch.

#6 Postby **hial2** » Sun Mar 25, 2007 8:57 am

gatorcane wrote:
I'm gearing up. I think this season will be active. It's just a hunch.

Gator,I hope your weather hunches are as wrong as your real estate bubble ones.. :lol:

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #7 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Mar 25, 2007 10:40 am

***The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.***

Well, since December we have seen a very strong abnormal easterly flow over Florida due to Bermuda High. This is supposed to happen in summer not winter.
So this is a scary sign. If we do not see a pattern shift, the East Florida and US coast may be looking at a much higher risk of hurricane impact.

Scorpion · #8 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Mar 25, 2007 10:45 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:***The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.***

Well, since December we have seen a very strong abnormal easterly flow over Florida due to Bermuda High. This is supposed to happen in summer not winter.
So this is a scary sign. If we do not see a pattern shift, the East Florida and US coast may be looking at a much higher risk of hurricane impact.

Similar thing happened last year around this time. Means nothing.

#9 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Mar 25, 2007 3:06 pm

hial2 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
I'm gearing up. I think this season will be active. It's just a hunch.

Gator,I hope your weather hunches are as wrong as your real estate bubble ones..

I don't think my real estate bubble predictions are wrong. :eek:

#10 Postby **abajan** » Sun Mar 25, 2007 7:01 pm

boca wrote:...I didn't think it was possible to get a tropical wave in March.

Once conditions are right, even hurricanes are possible at this or any other time of the year.

#11 Postby **hial2** » Sun Mar 25, 2007 7:17 pm

Once conditions are right, even hurricanes are possible at this or any other time of the year.[/quote]

There has been a t/c in the Atlantic every month of the year except one..I THINK that month is either February or March?

#12 Postby **NDG** » Mon Mar 26, 2007 12:58 pm

Scorpion wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:***The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.***

Well, since December we have seen a very strong abnormal easterly flow over Florida due to Bermuda High. This is supposed to happen in summer not winter.
So this is a scary sign. If we do not see a pattern shift, the East Florida and US coast may be looking at a much higher risk of hurricane impact.

Similar thing happened last year around this time. Means nothing.

Ah, last year the Bermuda ridge was almost non-existent across the western Atlantic & eastern US.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #13 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Mar 26, 2007 1:31 pm

Scorpion wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:***The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.***

Well, since December we have seen a very strong abnormal easterly flow over Florida due to Bermuda High. This is supposed to happen in summer not winter.
So this is a scary sign. If we do not see a pattern shift, the East Florida and US coast may be looking at a much higher risk of hurricane impact.

Similar thing happened last year around this time. Means nothing.

Last year El Nino Saved us.

#14 Postby **Windtalker1** » Tue Mar 27, 2007 6:27 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
Scorpion wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:***The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.***

Well, since December we have seen a very strong abnormal easterly flow over Florida due to Bermuda High. This is supposed to happen in summer not winter.
So this is a scary sign. If we do not see a pattern shift, the East Florida and US coast may be looking at a much higher risk of hurricane impact.

Similar thing happened last year around this time. Means nothing.

Last year El Nino Saved us.

Yes it did but not this year !

Tropical Wave in March?????

Tropical Wave in March?????

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