Tropical Cyclone Becky (21P) Fiji: Final Warning Issued

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 28/0223 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BECKY CENTRE [975HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3 SOUTH
167.5 EAST AT 280000 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 18.3S
167.5E AT 280000 UTC.CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15
KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.EXPECT
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 80 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN
100 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

BECKY NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. SYSTEM IS INFLUENCED BY THE
RESTRICTION OF MOIST INFLOW DUE TO LAND INTRACTION FROM VANUATU AND
NEW CALEDONIA. COLD CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUNF LLCC NOW
DISTORTED. SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL BUT IS STRONG
JUST SOUTH OF 20S. OUTFLOW BECOMING RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DVORAK BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH MG YIELD DATA T 0F 4.0. PAT AND
MET IS 3.5. FINAL T BASED ON PAT, THUS T4.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS. SYSTEM
LIES SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE AXIS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST
STEERING BECKY TO SOUTHEAST AND LATER SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE
CAPTURED THE SYSTEM AGREE ON A GRADUAL SOUTHERLY TRACK AND CURVING IT
WESTWARDS IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 281200 UTC NEAR 20.1S 168.5E MOV SSE 07KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 290000 UTC NEAR 21.4S 168.8E MOV SSE 08KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36HRS VALID 291200 UTC NEAR 22.1S 168.7E MOV SSE 07KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 300000 UTC NEAR 22.6S 167.6E MOV S 05KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON BECKY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
280800 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 28/0756 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BECKY CENTRE [975HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3 SOUTH
167.7 EAST AT 280600 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 19.3S 167.7E
AT 280600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF
THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

BECKY IS UNDERGOING INTENSIFICATION WITH COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS FORMING
OVER LLCC. MODERATE SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS
STRONGER JUST SOUTH OF 20S. OUTFLOW FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
DVORAK BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH MG YIELD DATA T 0F 4.0. PAT AND
MET IS 4.0. FINAL T BASED ON PAT, THUS T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS. SYSTEM
LIES SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE AXIS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST
STEERING BECKY SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM
AGREE ON A GRADUAL SOUTHERLY TRACK AND CURVING IT WESTWARDS IN THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 281800 UTC NEAR 20.8S 168.0E MOV S 09KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 290600 UTC NEAR 22.3S 168.0E MOV S 08KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36HRS VALID 291800 UTC NEAR 23.1S 167.5E MOV SW 05KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 300600 UTC NEAR 23.4S 166.7E MOV WSW 05KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON BECKY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
281400 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

BECKY passing between Vanuatu and New Caledonia.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 28/1934 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BECKY CENTRE [980HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5 SOUTH
168.0 EAST AT 281800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HRES MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS AND WEAKENING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55
KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER
33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

CONVECTION CONTINUED TO WARM MARKEDLY PAST 12 HOURS. SHEAR INCREASING
OVER SYSTEM AS IT DECELERATES. OUTFLOW GOOD SOUTH BUT POOR ELSEWHERE.
DVORAK BASED ON CONVECTION WRAPPING ROUGHLY 0.7 TO 0.8 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT3.5. PAT AND MET AGREE AT 3.5. FT HELD AT 4.0, THUS
T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE AXIS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST STEERING BECKY SOUTH INTO STRONGER SHEAR AND
COOLER SST. FURTHER RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED. CONSENSUS AGREE ON A
FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWEST TURN AND SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 290600 UTC NEAR 21.6S 167.9E MOV S 05KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 291800 UTC NEAR 22.4S 167.5E MOV SSW 05KT WITH 20KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36HRS VALID 300600 UTC NEAR 22.8S 167.2E MOV SSW 04KT WITH 20KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 301800 UTC NEAR 23.3S 166.5E MOV SSW 04KT WITH 20KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON BECKY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
290200 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

GALE WARNING 036 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 29/0122 UTC 2007 UTC.

** correction for repeat position **

TROPICAL CYCLONE BECKY CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8 SOUTH
168.3 EAST AT 290000 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.8S 168.3E AT 290000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.
[font=Georgia]CYCLONE WEAKENING RAPIDLY.[/font]
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
30 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.5S 167.8E AT 291200 UTC
AND NEAR 23.1S 167.1E AT 300000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 035.









[font=Arial Black][marq=down]RAPID WEAKENING[/marq] = [marq=up]HIGH WINDSHEAR[/marq][/font]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 29/0148 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BECKY CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8 SOUTH
168.3 EAST AT 290000 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 20.8S
168.3E AT 290000 UTC.CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 06
KNOTS.CYCLONE WEAKENING RAPIDLY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
30 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60
MILES OF THE CENTRE.

SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST
SHEAR. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAKES LLCC
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. OUTFLOW REASTRICTED NOW. DVORAK BASED ON CURVED
BAND WITH 0.4 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDA DT2.5. PAT AND MET AGREE.
THUS T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE
AND IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO COOLER SST. FURTHER RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND SYSTEM WOULD
BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL LOW IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SOONER.
CONSENSUS AGREE ON A FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK AND RAPID WEAKENING.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 291200 UTC NEAR 22.5S 167.8E MOV SSW 06KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 300000 UTC NEAR 23.1S 167.1E MOV SSW 05KT WITH 20KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON BECKY.

[HURAKAN]

JTWC FINAL WARNING.