How much of a possibility is it?

[JonathanBelles]

What is the possiblility of this scenerio of occuring?
That the SE ridge moves just slightly to the east and holds there until early in the hurricane season, just enough to guide any tropical system that forms into the GOM, more in question the Gulf Coast of Florida? Isnt this the normal pattern in the late season? This would mean a long dry season until the ridge moves east, a very intense fire season, a mild-strong allergy season, and maybe a couple hits from tropical cyclones.
The only difficulty here is that with the clockwise flow of the ridge, it would cool the atlantic east and south of the ridge. The Tropical cyclones would have to travel south of the ridge, into cooler air and possibly cooler water, to get to the GOM. Would this stunt or prohibit growth of storms in the GOM. I know that it would depend on how far south the ridge is.

What are the chances?

[boca]

Why would their be cooler air south of the ridge especially in the heat of the summer when water temps are in the mid to upper 80s. I don't think that would stunt the growth of hurricanes.

[Patrick99]

As far as I can tell, and this is very unscientific, just sheer observation - that ridge tends to stay there for much of the year, in all seasons including the hurricane season. Troughs come and troughs go, but that ridge always seems to get replaced. I guess all that matters is whether or not it's there during those handful of days every year when a hurricane would be able to take advantage of it and ride it into Florida and the Gulf.

[gatorcane]

What is the possiblility of this scenerio of occuring?
That the SE ridge moves just slightly to the east and holds there until early in the hurricane season, just enough to guide any tropical system that forms into the GOM, more in question the Gulf Coast of Florida? Isnt this the normal pattern in the late season? This would mean a long dry season until the ridge moves east, a very intense fire season, a mild-strong allergy season, and maybe a couple hits from tropical cyclones.
The only difficulty here is that with the clockwise flow of the ridge, it would cool the atlantic east and south of the ridge. The Tropical cyclones would have to travel south of the ridge, into cooler air and possibly cooler water, to get to the GOM. Would this stunt or prohibit growth of storms in the GOM. I know that it would depend on how far south the ridge is.

What are the chances?

What are the chances of what? You described a few possibilities here. The Gulf Coast of Florida (the west coast of Florida), has the highest chances of a hit from the Gulf side in June and October-November. The reason is that during these times, the Bermuda High is not as strong and short waves tend to dig farther south pulling weather systems north and east with them.