Gonna be busy! Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray's April Numbers

[x-y-no]

Hey Mike! Good to see you.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Oh never mined. I see they are region numbers.

[Stormcenter]

Didn't we read the same thing last year about how "active" 2006 was going to be?

Come on now we all know it's a crap shoot as to how many storms we will have and
whether or not they will make landfall. It would be nice if one season he (Gray) would
not make monthly (okay I'm exaggerating a little) updates to his "yearly" predictions and stand
by his initial prediction. In my opinion 1 major hurricane hitting the U.S. is an "active" season in itself.

[x-y-no]

Didn't we read the same thing last year about how "active" 2006 was going to be?

Come on now we all know it's a crap shoot as to how many storms we will have and
whether or not they will make landfall. It would be nice if one season he (Gray) would
not make monthly (okay I'm exaggerating a little) updates to his "yearly" predictions and stand
by his intial prediction. In my opinion 1 major hurricane hitting the U.S. is an "active" season in itself.

Well, last year's predictions were predicated on the idea that el Nino would not develop until after the bulk of the season was past. This turned out to be completely wrong - we had el Nino conditions by mid to late August and that strongly suppressed the heart of the season.

The possibility that this could happen was discussed in the pre-season, so it wasn't a total surprise (not that the bust of just about everybody's forecasts are any less dramatic for that.) But this year the probability of such a thing is just about nil - making for greater confidence in forecasting an active season.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree with X-Y-No on this one. Very few called 2006 correctly, El Nino and the SAL caught us all of guard, but that isn't any reason to stop trying to understand the mechanisms behind seasonal activity variations.

[Scorpion]

Didn't we read the same thing last year about how "active" 2006 was going to be?

Come on now we all know it's a crap shoot as to how many storms we will have and
whether or not they will make landfall. It would be nice if one season he (Gray) would
not make monthly (okay I'm exaggerating a little) updates to his "yearly" predictions and stand
by his initial prediction. In my opinion 1 major hurricane hitting the U.S. is an "active" season in itself.

That was entirely due to how active 2005 was and the ensuing El Nino, which will NOT happen this year

[Blown Away]

The local media panic button has been officially pushed.

[Stormcenter]

The local media panic button has been officially pushed.

Yes it sure has.

[HouTXmetro]

Well with that said, what regions are under ther gun? Do we have any indication of wht the patterns will be?

[tgenius]

I am not liking the whole feeling between Dr. Gray's report and what Bastardi said the other day for FL. I am just glad I finally have my hurricane shutters and generator for whatever may come from this.

[HURAKAN]

I am not liking the whole feeling between Dr. Gray's report and what Bastardi said the other day for FL. I am just glad I finally have my hurricane shutters and generator for whatever may come from this.

That's the best thing to do. My parents did the same. We have the shutters and an automatic gas generator. Let nature blow.

[MiamiensisWx]

I am not liking the whole feeling between Dr. Gray's report and what Bastardi said the other day for FL. I am just glad I finally have my hurricane shutters and generator for whatever may come from this.

That's the best thing to do. My parents did the same. We have the shutters and an automatic gas generator. Let nature blow.

Unfortunately our property owner won't permit the addition of shutters to the unprotected back windows near our vulnerable porch. Fortunately we have accordion shutters for the front windows and anchored Bahamas shutters for the side windows. We also have four gas cans and a good roof strength. I'm concerned about the strength of the porch structure but the owner may not allow amendments to provide tougher screen protection and porch protection from gusts and winds that are funneled through the gaps. In addition, some small gaps between roof tiles (less than one inch) need to be sealed and a missing roof tile needs to be replaced and properly installed.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am going to get shutters on the three larger windows I have above my front door. Those are the most vulnerable and would shatter even during a
category 1 hurricane because they shake like crazy even in 45 mph gusts

[T'Bonz]

Yeah, I'm glad we got the repairs done and got our generator. Mother Nature gave us a year off. People down here put it to good use. Most got their new roofs who needed them, there aren't as many blue tarps anymore.

[MGC]

It will be interesting to watch the media induced panic that will develope soon. We were lucky with El Nino last year....MGC

[WeatherEmperor]

Yeah. After 2004, my parents put up the accordion shutters up all around our house. They came in handy last year for Wilma as one part of the patio screen enclosure collapsed and fell right into one of the accordion shutters. The shutters held up amazingly well. We still gotta get a generator in case power goes out again. You guys all know, that loss of power is not fun....

<RICKY>

[HeatherAKC]

Our winter project was to install a gas generator that comes on when the power goes out. It's been tested once, when we had a power outage one night. Works like a charm, but talk about a permitting nightmare! We failed some of the inspections 3X over! We started the project after the new year, and it was completed in about 8 weeks!

Our new construction home came with aluminum shutters, but next winter we'll *hopefully* upgrade to impact resistant windows or accordian shutters b/c they're easier to use than the aluminum.

Haven't really noticed any season hype yet, but I haven't watched the evening news lately...

[JPmia]

That report's conclusions about the expected environmental conditions in the Tropical Atlantic, high sst, lower pressures, less wind shear, etc. remind me of the 2005 season. Does anyone agree? The question is: Are the conditions they expect in the Atlantic similiar to the conditions during the 2005 season? I am not implying there will be 27 named storms...but what is different about 2007 than in 2005? I didn't see anything.

[wxman57]

That report's conclusions about the expected environmental conditions in the Tropical Atlantic, high sst, lower pressures, less wind shear, etc. remind me of the 2005 season. Does anyone agree? The question is: Are the conditions they expect in the Atlantic similiar to the conditions during the 2005 season? I am not implying there will be 27 named storms...but what is different about 2007 than in 2005? I didn't see anything.

All of the parameters you mention were present in 2005, but there was another feature which is not currently present - a monsoonal-type trof extending across the central Caribbean, much like the monsoon trof in the western Pacific. That was a very unusual feature in 2005, something I'd not seen before. This trof provided a greater area of convergence across the Caribbean Sea than would normally be observed, and it was where a number of TCs formed in 2005.