Mozambique Channel: ex-TC Jaya (ex-TC 22S)

[Chacor]

480
WTIO30 FMEE 051206

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/14/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/04/05 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5S / 41.8E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/04/06 00 UTC: 16.3S/40.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/04/06 12 UTC: 17.0S/39.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2007/04/07 00 UTC: 17.6S/38.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2007/04/07 12 UTC: 18.1S/38.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2007/04/08 00 UTC: 18.6S/37.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2007/04/08 12 UTC: 19.0S/37.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
"EX-JAYA" IS GETTING CLOSE TO THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE. THE NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION BUT DUE
TO THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
RATHER STRONG OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BETWEEN 12S AND 20S, AND ALSO
OVER NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA PROVINCES. "EX-JAYA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY
AND TO SKIRT THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE, MAINTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THESE AREAS.

THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS BUT "EX-JAYA" IS CLOSELY MONITORED.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

That track forecast is outdated.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 050930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
045 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 42.3E TO 15.0S 40.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 050600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 42.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.3S 42.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TC 22S, AND IS BEGIN-
NING TO REORGANIZE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 050326Z QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWS 20-25 KT UNFLAGGED WINDS CLOSE TO THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS LESS THAN 100 NM FROM THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE, BUT
MAY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 060930Z.

[Chacor]

T2.5 from AFWA and JTWC, T2.0 from SAB.

[Chacor]

Weakened rapidly. Convection sheared to SE of centre. Downgraded to POOR from JTWC, MF has stopped advisories.

[P.K.]

Indeed, they were only running 24 hourly updates anyway though.

[Chacor]

For the life of me I can't tell what MF are up to, they've just issued a new advisory!

EDIT: I see why now!

542
TPXS10 KGWC 071343
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMNANTS OF 22S (JAYA)
B. 07/1131Z (20)
C. 18.6S/5
D. 40.4E/8
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS/ STT: D1.0/06HRS -07/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

49A/ PBO PRTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CENTER IS LOCATED
19NM INTO DG FOR AN UNREP DT OF T3.0. FT BASED ON
PT, MET AGREES. DUE TO SHORT TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
DVORAK DEVELOPMENTAL CONSTRAINTS WERE BKN TO ESTABLISH FT.

KRAMER/LONG

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

07/1430 UTC 18.5S 40.6E T2.0/2.0 JAYA -- South Indian Ocean







PERTURBATION TROPICALE EX-JAYA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1008 HPA.
POSITION LE 07 AVRIL A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 18.3 SUD / 40.0 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1625 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 18.5S/41E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 19.5S/41.9E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 21.7S/41.3E

Continues to fight but so far shear is winning.

[Chacor]

Gone again.