NHC Director Says Season Will Be Active...Why Did He Do That

[MWatkins]

I know this came out of the national conference this week…and I think I understand why the topic came up…but I was a bit surprised to see this statement/article show up today in the Sun Sentinal…

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -headlines

Reading the article, Mr Proenza didn’t say all that much, other than esentially…”the season looks to be active, but a lot could change”.

Max was good in many ways as Director, but one thing that impressed me more than anything else whas his ability to stay away from subjects that detracted from the mission of the center. I know the NHC participates in the NOAA forecast, but they don’t issue it. It had always been policy to stay away from seasonal forecasts and stick to dealing with the storms once they develop.

So I am curious why he would stick his toe in the seasonal forecasting water…even just a little…unless he feels that mentioning the season could be active may help people prepare?

Not being critical…just curious…and thought this may make for some discussion…why did he do that?

MW

[vbhoutex]

I know this came out of the national conference this week…and I think I understand why the topic came up…but I was a bit surprised to see this statement/article show up today in the Sun Sentinal…

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -headlines

Reading the article, Mr Proenza didn’t say all that much, other than esentially…”the season looks to be active, but a lot could change”.

Max was good in many ways as Director, but one thing that impressed me more than anything else whas his ability to stay away from subjects that detracted from the mission of the center. I know the NHC participates in the NOAA forecast, but they don’t issue it. It had always been policy to stay away from seasonal forecasts and stick to dealing with the storms once they develop.

So I am curious why he would stick his toe in the seasonal forecasting water…even just a little…unless he feels that mentioning the season could be active may help people prepare?

Not being critical…just curious…and thought this may make for some discussion…why did he do that?

MW

I think that is it right there(what I bolded). I got the impression that he would be more "out front" than Max was, even though Mayfield was quite visible.

[tgenius]

My bigger problem is there isn't a middle-ground where people are aware and prepared and hysteria around here (Miami,FL) It seems like its over the top Gloom and Doom with the hurricane season. Anyone else get that feeling in their neck of the woods?

[Jagno]

My bigger problem is there isn't a middle-ground where people are aware and prepared and hysteria around here (Miami,FL) It seems like its over the top Gloom and Doom with the hurricane season. Anyone else get that feeling in their neck of the woods?

Quite the opposite here tgenius.
Most are whining that since last years forcasts were off then surely they are wrong this year so they aren't giving prepardness one ounce of thought. This worries me considerably and I've tried explaining the differences but they won't believe it until it's time to evacuate.

[turtlehurricane]

He's a meteorologist, I see no problem in discussing an aspect of weather.

[Recurve]

I think you nailed it Mike -- helping make people aware and be proactive. The NHC can't ignore how much the message needs to get out -- you must be prepared for hurricanes (south Florida, this means you). True, it sounds like a season forecast, but it's really just the old "we're in an active period, and you're in Florida...and even if we're not in an active period, and can't really predict seasonal activity...you're still in Florida"

[Janie2006]

My bigger problem is there isn't a middle-ground where people are aware and prepared and hysteria around here (Miami,FL) It seems like its over the top Gloom and Doom with the hurricane season. Anyone else get that feeling in their neck of the woods?

Quite the opposite here tgenius.
Most are whining that since last years forcasts were off then surely they are wrong this year so they aren't giving prepardness one ounce of thought. This worries me considerably and I've tried explaining the differences but they won't believe it until it's time to evacuate.

Unbelievable. And incredible. Its difficult to believe that people (especially living in the Gulf Coast states) can really think that way given the hurricane activity over the last few years.

It seems that I consistently overestimate some people.

[johngaltfla]

Mike, I've been trying to make people aware for a month now. The response I get is "they'll mess it up like last year so I'm not worried" or words to that effect.

It speaks volumes to the fact that the increases in insurance rates, the education programs and warnings of the past just are not getting through to people.

And your area and mine should be paying attention more than anyone as the West Coast of Florida and Miami areas have escaped a direct hit on the major cities for decades now.

God help us if this attitude continues.

[gatorcane]

Mike, I've been trying to make people aware for a month now. The response I get is "they'll mess it up like last year so I'm not worried" or words to that effect.

It speaks volumes to the fact that the increases in insurance rates, the education programs and warnings of the past just are not getting through to people.

And your area and mine should be paying attention more than anyone as the West Coast of Florida and Miami areas have escaped a direct hit on the major cities for decades now.

God help us if this attitude continues.

Agreed. Many South Floridian erroneously assume they have experienced a major hurricane with Wilma when in fact it just brought CAT 1-2 conditions. Wilma knocked out power to hundreds of thousands here and she wasn't even a major! Also, Frances, Jeanne, and Katrina were mere tropical storms with CAT 1 gusts here and there for South Florida (Palm Beach County and south)God help us if we get a CAT 4 or 5 here. Total destruction and devastation will be ubiquitous. People had better start paying attention to the experts.

[AnnularCane]

Mike, I've been trying to make people aware for a month now. The response I get is "they'll mess it up like last year so I'm not worried" or words to that effect.

I've been hearing that too. How do people get so complacent after one relatively quiet season?

[gatorcane]

Mike, I've been trying to make people aware for a month now. The response I get is "they'll mess it up like last year so I'm not worried" or words to that effect.

I've been hearing that too. How do people get so complacent after one relatively quiet season?

simple. People forget easily.

[Downdraft]

Last week I emailed our Emergency Manager concerning Dr. Gray's forecast and explaining the factors that may lead to a busy season. He emailed me back that the info made his head hurt, and clearly the message was it's way to early to start thinking about this stuff. This coming from a guy that is the emergency manager of our county for crying out loud. They can hold seminar after seminar on bio-terrorism, cyber-terrorism and the probabilty Osama Bin Laden has warts but hurricane preparedness gets relegated to a few weeks before the season starts. We need 120 billion more to support our troops in harms way but we can't come up with the money to replace a critical satellite now functioning beyond its operational life span. It's politically correct to get on the global warming bandwagon yet the same advocates won't appropriate the funds to deal with their own perceived threat and even if they did the administration in place would never sign off on it. I do see their logic though. Sometime in the next 1000 years La Palma will collapse into the sea the resulting mega-tsunami will make worrying about our coastlines a moot point so why worry now? Does anyone think the dikes protecting New Orleans now are any better than they were the day before Katrina? Sorry folks shame on me for venting.