Jeff Masters 2007 season outlook=15/8/4

[cycloneye]

Jeff Masters 2007 season outlook



Any comments are welcomed about his analysis of the factors including sst's,african dust,ENSO and more.

[Dynamic]

Dr. Jeff Masters copied my forecast here two weeks ago!!!

I really believe that this hurricane season will be very active, my only concern is the African dust and Masters is forecasting a below average of this dust in the Atlantic for this season. If it is correct we will see more Cape Verde storms coming soon.

[Stormcenter]

Dr. Jeff Masters copied my forecast here two weeks ago!!!

I really believe that this hurricane season will be very active, my only concern is the African dust and Masters is forecasting a below average of this dust in the Atlantic for this season. If it is correct we will see more Cape Verde storms coming soon.

What do you mean by your only "concern" is SAL? It almost sounds like you are looking forward to an active season.

I believe this will be an average to below average season. I'm sorry that may not be what some want to hear.

[hial2]

This is contradictory to what he preaches....Wait till late May when we'll have a better grasp of things..

[GeneratorPower]

What do you mean by your only "concern" is SAL? It almost sounds like you are looking forward to an active season.

I believe this will be an average to below average season. I'm sorry that may not be what some want to hear.

Many people on this board are indeed looking forward to an active season. This should not be a surprise.

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, hurricanes can be a good thing, without them, there would likely be something worse!

[Dynamic]

Dr. Jeff Masters copied my forecast here two weeks ago!!!

I really believe that this hurricane season will be very active, my only concern is the African dust and Masters is forecasting a below average of this dust in the Atlantic for this season. If it is correct we will see more Cape Verde storms coming soon.

What do you mean by your only "concern" is SAL? It almost sounds like you are looking forward to an active season.

I believe this will be an average to below average season. I'm sorry that may not be what some want to hear.

Please you do not misinterpret my words, I will be happy if we have many hurricanes this season, but I will be happier if neither of them touches land.

The hurricanes have their tasks in this world and one of these is to remove hot air from the equator and take it to North. If many hurricanes form and all go away from land in the center of the Atlantic to the North, I will be happy. I enjoy seeing the development of a hurricane, not the destruction that they may have in land.

[MiamiensisWx]

Please you do not misinterpret my words, I will be happy if we have many hurricanes this season, but I will be happier if neither of them touches land.

The hurricanes have their tasks in this world and one of these is to remove hot air from the equator and take it to North. If many hurricanes form and all go away from land in the center of the Atlantic to the North, I will be happy. I enjoy seeing the development of a hurricane, not the destruction that they may have in land.

Your post is perfectly stated. As a resident, I do not want landfalls during any season. In fact I would not mind another 2006. I would personally welcome a repeat of last year. At the same time, the interest in meteorology (and tropical cyclonres) remains with me. I can personally see the awe of the complexity and power these systems contain, and the interests of scientific study of the synoptics that influence these weather systems are fascinating. See storm chasers as excellent examples of the complexity of human emotions.

[Downdraft]

Hmmmm, I find it slightly coincidental that he would rip Gray's April forecast as having a negative skill level yet then post his own with very similar numbers. Someone tell me what he knows that has escaped Dr. Gray and his team?

[WeatherEmperor]

I just wanted to put in my 2 cents. I understand some people criticize Dr.Gray's forecasts when he puts them out. But what people have to remember is that he forecasts the number of named storms for each season. He is not a prophet. And like all forecasts, the hurricane seasonal forecasts are allowed to be updated every now and then. If hurricane forecasters are allowed to update the forecast track of a tropical cyclone every 6 hours, and if meteorologists are allowed to update the weather maps every now and then, then Dr. Gray should NOT be criticized for updating his seasonal forecasts when he does. All forecasts are updated and Dr. Gray's should be no exception. Am I wrong for thinking this way?

<RICKY>

[ROCK]

I just wanted to put in my 2 cents. I understand some people criticize Dr.Gray's forecasts when he puts them out. But what people have to remember is that he forecasts the number of named storms for each season. He is not a prophet. And like all forecasts, the hurricane seasonal forecasts are allowed to be updated every now and then. If hurricane forecasters are allowed to update the forecast track of a tropical cyclone every 6 hours, and if meteorologists are allowed to update the weather maps every now and then, then Dr. Gray should NOT be criticized for updating his seasonal forecasts when he does. All forecasts are updated and Dr. Gray's should be no exception. Am I wrong for thinking this way?

<RICKY>

No Ricky you are not wrong. A forecast is just what it means. Some people just disagree with his opinion. I personally like the good Doc and his blog. Very sharp guy and I don't think he was ripping Gray's numbers. He just pointing out why he disagrees.

[WeatherEmperor]

I just wanted to put in my 2 cents. I understand some people criticize Dr.Gray's forecasts when he puts them out. But what people have to remember is that he forecasts the number of named storms for each season. He is not a prophet. And like all forecasts, the hurricane seasonal forecasts are allowed to be updated every now and then. If hurricane forecasters are allowed to update the forecast track of a tropical cyclone every 6 hours, and if meteorologists are allowed to update the weather maps every now and then, then Dr. Gray should NOT be criticized for updating his seasonal forecasts when he does. All forecasts are updated and Dr. Gray's should be no exception. Am I wrong for thinking this way?

<RICKY>

No Ricky you are not wrong. A forecast is just what it means. Some people just disagree with his opinion. I personally like the good Doc and his blog. Very sharp guy and I don't think he was ripping Gray's numbers. He just pointing out why he disagrees.

Doc,

Thank you for brining up a very important point that I forgot to mention. You are absolutely correct to say that some people just disagree with Dr. Gray's seasonal forecasts. The same thing happens when the NHC puts out their 5 day forecast track for a tropical cyclone: some people agree with it, and other do not agree with it. I know that perhaps this is going into a slightly different direction, but have there been cases particularly here at the Talkin Tropics forum where some think that his seasonal forecasts are just useless and waste of time? Have there been any cases of this?

<RICKY>

[Downdraft]

I don't think anyone is ripping Dr. Gray or Dr. Master's for their forecasts. What they are saying is that compared to verification early season forecasts have a demonstrated negative skill level for verification. So if you take the numbers as gospel your probably going to be off come the actual season. However, anything that puts hurricanes into the minds of the general public for the purpose of beginning preparations is absolutely a good thing. I totally respect the opinions of both Gray and Master's and disagreement with respect always makes for healthy dialogue. I have friends that recently moved to Florida from the midwest. They live on a barrier island off the main coast and recently at dinner they told me how excited they were to perhaps see their first hurricane up close and personal with a beach front view. Their ignorance is magnified a 1000 times here in Florida with apathy from old residents and ignorance from new ones. The more anyone gets the word out the better off we will be. Heck, in that respect even the global warming debate helps some.