TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) May forecast=16/9/4

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cycloneye
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TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) May forecast=16/9/4

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 03, 2007 1:21 pm

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

16 names storms instead of 17 that they had in the April forecast is the only change.Always is interesting to read their forecasts every month to see all the data that they gather to then forecast how the activity during the season will be.
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#2 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu May 03, 2007 1:38 pm

I'm seeing they claim a forecast skill of 47% for this lead time. Isn't that worse than climatology? If so, that's a useless forecast. It's got to be 50.01% or better to be beneficial as a forecast.

I could do a coin toss and beat their skill.
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#3 Postby hial2 » Thu May 03, 2007 2:06 pm

I think they mean that their forecast is correct 47% of the time..This is not the same as flipping a coin,where you have a 50/50 chance of being right..
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#4 Postby canegrl04 » Thu May 03, 2007 3:26 pm

Dr. Grey's forecasts have never been right.Thats why he "adjusts" them every 4-6 weeks during the season :roll:
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