SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

[punkyg]

Who thinks it will get better organized?
i think the winds will get to 50 mph before it makes landfall. just tell me yes or no

It may not even make landfall. I'm thinking it will hug the coastline then get pushed away...

I hope not we need rain and i will be so mad.

[B'hamBlazer]

I dont see any *significant* strengthening... maybe very slight in terms of wind. But I wouldn't be surprised to see it become much more tropical (ie, more rain and moisture).

[curtadams]

Albeit a weak and disorganized one, Andrea is looking more and more like a tropical than subtropical system. Heck, it looks better than Alberto ever did.......

I'd say Alberto looked pretty good at times, albeit strongly sheared. Andrea is very ragged. She's becoming more tropical as the extratropical upper low that created her disappears, but at the same time is deteriorating because the local conditions for a tropical storm are rather poor.

[MiamiensisWx]

Ah, we're playing "where's the center" again. I do see a mid-level swirl closer to 31N/79.3W. I see no evidence of any LLC near 32N/79W. All surface reports have moderate easterly winds there in the outer band of squalls. The LLC is very hard to find on satellite, probably west of the mid-level center somewhere but it's very broad and disorganized. I think I see it around 30.9N/80W, but there appear to be several lsmall eddies rotating around a broader center. Buoy reports and ships around Andrea are generally reporting 20-30 kt winds, down from this morning. Still an occasional 35 kt wind report from some reporting station near 31.37N/80.54W. Not sure if it's a buoy or a ship. A buoy right next to that report has 25kts, though, so the 35kt wind could be a bad report. There MIGHT be a small patch of 35 kt winds 100nm ENE of the center, but no reports there.

Most likely, Andrea will drift around for 2-3 days, probably not doing too much. Should gradually spin down as the upper low weakens and vertical lift diminishes. Hopefully, a little rain will fall inland across the SE US, but wind won't be a problem. By Sunday, an upper-level trof moving eastward across the northern Gulf should kick what's left of Andrea out to the east.

Upon further review, I actually agree with your assessment. I see the LLC near 30.9N and 80W. I was looking at the location of the mid-level swirl. Due to the broad rotation, I initially believed the LLC was near the mid-level rotation. Since the deepest convection has surrounded the mid-level eddy, I believed the LLC might have been reforming at the surface.



I apologize for my error.