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Well, here it is - Subtropical Storm Andrea has arrived, though under weird circumstances. The system has slowed down further, leaving me unable to estimate how slowly it is moving. According to Forecaster Knabb of the National Hurricane Center, Air Force recon found a borderline warm/cold core, which confirmed what the cyclone phase models and AMSU imagery indiciated. The convective structure has not changed much, although convection in the SE quadrant has deepened a little and the convection is a little closer to the center. Latest SAB satellite fix was ST3.0 using the Hebert-Poteat technique for estimating subtropical cyclone intensity.
The models aren't being kind to me this morning given Andrea's slow initial motion. Most of them have Andrea drifting to the southwest, then to the south over the next few days. About half of the models (namely the ETA, NOGAPS, BAMS, GFDL, and the NCEP GFS ensemble) bring Andrea over land at some point in the forecast period, and there is no reason to believe that it won't make landfall after 72 hours. Thus, the forecast indicates a southwesterly to southerly drift. The system is currently over the warmest waters it will encounter on this track, so weakening is likely.
Initial...31.0°N 79.5°W...40 kt
12 hour...30.8°N 79.8°W...40 kt
24 hour...30.5°N 80.1°W...35 kt
36 hour...30.2°N 80.3°W...35 kt
48 hour...29.7°N 80.4°W...30 kt
72 hour...29.2°N 80.5°W...30 kt
