Area north of Bahamas

[Thunder44]

Ship report just NE of center, at 11z reported 35kt SE winds

SHIP S 1100 33.00 -70.10 163 128 130 35.0

There are two ships apparently now going around the system. So we should be to determine soon if this the low is closed. Now one just reported at 12z East wind at 15kts:

SHIP S 1200 33.40 -72.30 79 167 80 15.0 - 1.6 2.0 - - 29.84

The other one hasn't reported back yet.

[HURAKAN]

This is a battle that I won't even fight because the system is already moving over cooler waters and the NHC likes to watch their for sometime before making any upgrades. If it had stayed a little more near the Bahamas it would had the possibility of becoming Barry.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is a battle that I won't even fight because the system is already moving over cooler waters and the NHC likes to watch their for sometime before making any upgrades. If it had stayed a little more near the Bahamas it would had the possibility of becoming Barry.

I agree, it looks pretty good but a front is moving off the east coast. In which will move this faster into cooler water over the next 24 hours. Who knows if this has even formed a warm core yet. I would say its possible, No fight out of me,

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Between 34-38 north the gulf stream turns eastward right in the path of this. So over the next 6-12 hours maybe a little SST help,. But shear is working against it.

[HURAKAN]

Just for comparison purposes:

[Thunder44]

Yeah, HURAKAN, and those systems went out to sea. This system will bring rain to the New England this weekend.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is short lasting only since last night around 8pm; when it started developing convection over the center. This system has not lasted nearly as long as those systems. It is understandable with only 70-73 degree water under this the nhc will let it just fly. Who knows doe's not look to bad, but convection is getting sheared.

[Thunder44]

Take a look at the SST map off the East Coast from yesterday. There is actually warmer water ahead of it around 24C to 25C, just between 36N and 38N:



The only thing is that it may merge with the cold front off the east coast later.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is Barry folks IMO whether the give him his name or not.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is Barry folks IMO whether the give him his name or not.

Its possible but the LLC is almost totally exposed now, as it passes over the gulf stream, also if it can stay detached from the frontal system that is coming it may have its chance. Is it Barry? That is a quastion of doe's it have a warm core, I would say possible because of the deep convection that formed over it; but it is detaching or coupling right now. The next quastion that has to be looked into is there a frontal boundry, by the looks of the convection to the southeast of the low pressure area, I would say a weak one. So close but it is running out of time fast.

Also I still feel in this is the only tropical storm you will ever see me quastion Graces upgrade in 2003. I think it was a trough, maybe a depression at first. But it turned into a trough.

[Thunder44]

Latest Ship ob at 13z has a NE wind at 13kts:

SHIP S 1300 33.30 -72.90 247 324 50 13.0

I have the low at 32.6N 71.7W. The center appears to broad and elongated. And most of the convection is being blown to the NE of it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

New tighter LLC trying to develop on southern edge of the convection. The broader LLC is weaking on the southern side. So this 'LLC' is what we need to watch.