NOLA MET FORECASTS 9 NAMED STORMS

[WmE]

It only takes one! 1935 there were only 6 named storms, but the most noteable was the great labor day hurricane that still has the record for the lowest landfall pressure in the atlantic.

[NDG]

I watched his video last night on his website, what Bob B. did not mentioned was that all 6 storms made landfall across either C.A., Caribbean, US or Canada, and that one of them, of course, was the great labor day hurricane.
He came out in his broadcast with last year's May forecast pretending he was showing last years May forecast by mistake, he was telling his viewers not to buy the hype, that just like last year, this year's forecast was going to be a bust.
He also mentioned that in the Caribbean, windshear is currently high just like '06, what he did not mentioned is that high windshear at the Caribbean in May is normal.
He also mentioned about the troughiness along the east coast could be there this year as it did in '06. What he did not mentioned was that what the trend has been lately is for a ridge to hang along the mid-atlantic and SE US, thus anything coming from the Caribbean would track towards the GOM.
Not one time did he mentioned or showed proof of any current weather patterns similar to 1935 to back up his forecast.

[micktooth]

Because of Bob Breck and other Mets in NOLA disregarding the models for Katrina, my family and I are now living in Colorado. We didn't want to live through another "hyped up" season.

[MGC]

In defense of Breck, the models did initially forecast Katrina not to come any where close to New Orleans. Breck as I recall made that statement while Katrina was in the Bahamas, even the NHC thought Katrina was going up the east coast of Florida early on. Last season Breck used the same analogy when he predicted a far less active season than 2005. He is using the same method this season, using historical (referenced to the 1933 season) records. Breck is hoping the East Coast trough remains in place this season. I'm not so sure of the set up come this August and September as far as the position on the Bermuda Ridge. Personally I hope Breck is right......MGC

[LAwxrgal]

It only takes one! 1935 there were only 6 named storms, but the most noteable was the great labor day hurricane that still has the record for the lowest landfall pressure in the atlantic.

Yep, all we need is one bad storm making landfall to make a bad season. That said, most of us hope Breck is right. Just about every forecast for an active season busted last year, so you never know.

[MWatkins]

Yes…I know it only takes one storm. I don't disagree with that...

There are certain private meteorological companies who are based in the northeast who have become very good at the game…and the game is this:

When everyone is calling for one thing…just say something else. Because…if it works out, you get the right to call everyone else dumb and proclaim yourself smart.

For example…let’s take a random hurricane…oh let’s say Ophelia.

Good…let’s take Ophelia and put it east of Florida…and all of the computer guidance and synoptic reasoning is pointing to a brush northward to the Carolinas. But…but…there is one computer model that is suggesting a trip into the Gulf of Mexico.

We all know the Gulf of Mexico thing…say in 2005…would get a lot of press attention…so…if I were trying to make a name for myself…do I follow the track that everyone else is following? Or do I go out on a limb and go for the more dramatic deal that NO ONE ELSE is talking about?

If my only goal is to make a name for myself…I go out there. If I am wrong…oh well…sorry. But if I am right…wow…I get to call everyone else dumb and I get all of the credit and adulation because I was the only one who made the right call.

In other words…you can’t say “I’m the one to turn to” if everyone is saying the same things.

So that is what is probably happening. Maybe Bob Breck and his reliable “viper” model are honestly thinking that there will only be 9 named storms and the season…with warm ssts and less shear….will be below normal.

Maybe.

And maybe he happens to be saying the things his market wants to hear…while saying something different than everyone else. After all, at the end of the day, his job is to get ratings for his TV station first and foremost. TV viewers, as I know all too well, don’t have time to waste on science.

MW

[WeatherEmperor]

Yes…I know it only takes one storm. I don't disagree with that...

There are certain private meteorological companies who are based in the northeast who have become very good at the game…and the game is this:

When everyone is calling for one thing…just say something else. Because…if it works out, you get the right to call everyone else dumb and proclaim yourself smart.

For example…let’s take a random hurricane…oh let’s say Ophelia.

Good…let’s take Ophelia and put it east of Florida…and all of the computer guidance and synoptic reasoning is pointing to a brush northward to the Carolinas. But…but…there is one computer model that is suggesting a trip into the Gulf of Mexico.

We all know the Gulf of Mexico thing…say in 2005…would get a lot of press attention…so…if I were trying to make a name for myself…do I follow the track that everyone else is following? Or do I go out on a limb and go for the more dramatic deal that NO ONE ELSE is talking about?

If my only goal is to make a name for myself…I go out there. If I am wrong…oh well…sorry. But if I am right…wow…I get to call everyone else dumb and I get all of the credit and adulation because I was the only one who made the right call.

In other words…you can’t say “I’m the one to turn to” if everyone is saying the same things.

So that is what is probably happening. Maybe Bob Breck and his reliable “viper” model are honestly thinking that there will only be 9 named storms and the season…with warm ssts and less shear….will be below normal.

Maybe.

And maybe he happens to be saying the things his market wants to hear…while saying something different than everyone else. After all, at the end of the day, his job is to get ratings for his TV station first and foremost. TV viewers, as I know all too well, don’t have time to waste on science.

MW

That is absolutely correct Mike. I personally try not to get too drawn into all that stuff but it is interesting to see how drastically different one forecast is from another. Your best bet is just to stick with the NHC when it comes to tropical cyclone information.

<RICKY>

[Stormcenter]

I watched his video last night on his website, what Bob B. did not mentioned was that all 6 storms made landfall across either C.A., Caribbean, US or Canada, and that one of them, of course, was the great labor day hurricane.
He came out in his broadcast with last year's May forecast pretending he was showing last years May forecast by mistake, he was telling his viewers not to buy the hype, that just like last year, this year's forecast was going to be a bust.
He also mentioned that in the Caribbean, windshear is currently high just like '06, what he did not mentioned is that high windshear at the Caribbean in May is normal.
He also mentioned about the troughiness along the east coast could be there this year as it did in '06. What he did not mentioned was that what the trend has been lately is for a ridge to hang along the mid-atlantic and SE US, thus anything coming from the Caribbean would track towards the GOM.
Not one time did he mentioned or showed proof of any current weather patterns similar to 1935 to back up his forecast.

I think his prediction is based a lot on climatology. Hey if he is right then he's a genius if not well then he's just another Met who made a bad prediction.

[Jam151]

I think his prediction is based a lot on climatology. Hey if he is right then he's a genius if not well then he's just another Met who made a bad prediction.

yeah but the way he uses climatology is really bad, imho.

[southerngale]

We can hope he's right, but most signs seem to point to an active season, so I wouldn't bet on it. I just pray that there aren't any major landfalls.