GFS Runs

ronjon · #1 Postby **ronjon** » Tue May 22, 2007 7:12 pm

For what it's worth, the GFS continues its runs of developing a low pressure in the western caribbean in 7 days and moving it N-NE over the Florida peninsula. I think this makes 4 or 5 days of model runs in a row. If it's wrong, it sure is stubbornly wrong..kinda reminds me of someone I know :wink:

Anyway, the equally phantom low developer NAM now shows low pressure in the same region in 84 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif

Extremeweatherguy · #2 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue May 22, 2007 7:25 pm

One thing that makes me interested in this is how consistant the GFS has been. Usually it looses these wild scenarios quickly, but this time it has shown a similar situation for days and days. It will be worth watching to see if anything actually comes of this. I don't give it too much of a chance though.

#3 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue May 22, 2007 9:04 pm

And it does not show a rapidly deepening system either, but SST's in that part of the SE Gulf are warm enough, if the shear lessens it could possibly make TS status if the Low materializes. No matter, it is the rain that would be a welcome sight.

HURRICANELONNY · #4 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Wed May 23, 2007 6:41 pm

I think what the GFS has been doing is detecting lower pressure in the Carribean. So it keeps pushing a low out every week. The pressures are lower then usual so maybe once we get into the season will get some rain out of these. I hope not much else.

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Wed May 23, 2007 7:12 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:One thing that makes me interested in this is how consistant the GFS has been. Usually it looses these wild scenarios quickly, but this time it has shown a similar situation for days and days. It will be worth watching to see if anything actually comes of this. I don't give it too much of a chance though.

Yes, this time it's consistently bad. Normally it's just bad off and on. ;-)

Dr. Jonah Rainwater · #6 Postby **Dr. Jonah Rainwater** » Thu May 24, 2007 3:33 am

If the general pressures are low in the Western Carribean then Barry would have a good chance of forming within a few weeks time

Meso · #7 Postby **Meso** » Thu May 24, 2007 4:14 am

Canadian also showing a low moving over Florida : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

#8 Postby **MGC** » Thu May 24, 2007 2:24 pm

Seems the GFS has been spinning up a low in the SW Carb Sea for weeks now. I wonder if this will continue all season? If so you can throw the GFS out the window this season.....MGC

#9 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 24, 2007 2:26 pm

Let's not be so harsh on these models....

It is nearly June 1st and a scenario like these models are showing is historically very probable this time of year.

Would not surprise me one bit if it happens.

GFS Runs

GFS Runs

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