Hurricane Return Periods by Locale

[btangy]

I would be very wary of the return periods for Cat 4-5 hurricanes just because the sample size is so small and the fitted distribution (which is probably some sort of gamma distribution) is very sensitive at its tail (i.e. for intense storms). I think paleotempestology, which is a field just beginning to emerge, may yield better estimates in the future.

[mempho]

I would be very wary of the return periods for Cat 4-5 hurricanes just because the sample size is so small and the fitted distribution (which is probably some sort of gamma distribution) is very sensitive at its tail (i.e. for intense storms). I think paleotempestology, which is a field just beginning to emerge, may yield better estimates in the future.

I tend to agree but we have rough estimates based on how far surge was carried inland which they can see through taking soil samples. I'm not sure if that was done for these estimates though.

[AussieMark]

Hate to think if this hurricane hit today

[SouthFloridawx]

Hate to think if this hurricane hit today



http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I find it very interesting reading about these old storms and the reports from people there. Eventhough technology wasn't advanced they were able to measure windspeed and air pressure. IMO eventhough we have satelite technology the damage affect is something we will never be able to control. No matter how much preparation we do the wind and surge will do it's damage. The only thing we can greatly limit is the death toll. I'm going to keep reading this... thanks for this link.

Year: 1893

Date(s): 27-28 August

Principle Affected Area(s): Upper Georgia - Major hurricane

Upper Georgia coastal waters - Major hurricane

Lower Georgia - hurricane

Lower Georgia coastal waters - Major hurricane

North Florida - hurricane

North Florida coastal waters - Major hurricane

Landfall Point(s): South of Tybee Island

Remarks: Partagas and Diaz Storm 6, 1893, listed by Davis.

One of the great weather related natural disasters. Up to 2,500 perished along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Accompanied by a tremendous surge which completely submerged many of the Sea Islands. This storm was sharply recurving offshore. It passed to the east of downtown Jacksonville by 45-60 statute miles and offshore of St. Simons Island by 25-30 statute miles. Jacksonville barometer was 29.04 inches/983.4 mb, based on local station records. 9 cottages blown down at Mayport, may have destroyed the remains of the original lighthouse at Mayport. Dr. Frances Ho, estimated a central pressure of 931 mb (making it a category four storm) at landfall. Endnote The Atlantic Hurricane Re-analysis Project has indicated a Category three landfall along the upper Georgia coast with a minimum central pressure at landfall of 954 mb and a 23 nmi Radius of maximum winds. Additionally, the storm made landfall coincident with the full moon phase the moon reaching full at 3:42 am on the 27th.

Utilizing Ho’s central pressure relationship equation for this event, with the same RMW (as at Savannah) of 23 nm, an outer pressure of 1010 mb, a Jacksonville minimum pressure of 983.4 mb, and distance from downtown Jacksonville of 45 nm yields a central pressure of 943.5 mb at the storm’s closest point of approach to Jacksonville. It seems unlikely that the storm was deepening at the time of landfall as Ho’s analysis suggests, and the Re-analysis Project’s 954 mb landfall pressure and a weakening trend prior to landfall seem more reasonable. As the North Florida and Lower Georgia coastal areas were on the weaker western side of the storm it will be counted as a minimal hurricane for those areas. Damage reports from the 1893 hurricane are very similar to damage sustained in Hurricane Floyd in 1999 and it appears the 1893 event was a similar storm for those areas.

Summary: This storm will be counted as a hurricane for northeast Florida and the lower Georgia coast and a major hurricane for the upper Georgia coast and all of the coastal water areas

[mempho]

Bump for interested parties.

[OuterBanker]

It's nice to know that we lose our red dot at Cat 4 (as I suspected giving the lat). Looks like I won't be moving to se or sw Fla anytime soon, hurricanes are enough of a pia here.

[jaxfladude]

Well since my area Jacksonville, Florida is 100% Hurricane proof I do not have to worry about any thing this hurricane season or any in the future....

Your average J';Ville resident.

[mempho]

Well since my area Jacksonville, Florida is 100% Hurricane proof I do not have to worry about any thing this hurricane season or any in the future....

I don't think that was the message...however, it has been a long time for JAX...might you be DUE???? [Cue Twilight Zone music]

[jaxfladude]

Well since my area Jacksonville, Florida is 100% Hurricane proof I do not have to worry about any thing this hurricane season or any in the future....

I don't think that was the message...however, it has been a long time for JAX...might you be DUE???? [Cue Twilight Zone music]

Please see the edited post above yours, stupid FireFox's spell checker.....