Low level turning South of Western Cuba

[boca]

You can see some twisting of the low level clouds south of the western tip of Cuba.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Its the southern most end of the exiting shortwave. Its hard to see but if you look at Cozumel and go due east 100 miles there it is.

[Chacor]

I was looking at some model runs yesterday and the Canadian (I think it was, or maybe it was the GFS) was picking this up.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

First of all its has very strong shear over it, so not much of a chance of development. IF I had to look for development of low pressure area I would look about 80 mile southeast of Miami; with that extratropical system. Watch that for another possible 91L.

[Berwick Bay]

Yes Boca, it is there. Its in that "niche" area which I mentioned a day or so ago. At the boundary of the High which has ridged in across the Eastern Gulf, and the Zonal Flow (W to E) across the Carribean. I look for surface pressure to lower here and a little north to just about at the tip of Cuba. Thanks for your keen observation, and I'm certainly not writing this off. I post about it another the 'Southern Gulf' thread too. Thats where I would expect some possible development.

[TheRingo]

That looks like a cut off low forming west of cuba as the trough lifts out.
Could take the shear with it too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the real problems down in the NW Caribbean and GOM could be coming in another 4-8 days. The models continue to show lowering pressures and increasing precip. down in that area (stretching from the bay of campeche all the way to the FL keys) starting next week, and I think that by the end of this month or early June there will be a better chance that something tries to spin up down there. Could be an interesting start to the season. For now though, I think this swirl south of Cuba has too much shear to contend with and will not be a big issue.

[canegrl04]

I think June is going to be alittle more active than normal .Probably a couple of named storms,one becoming a hurricane befoe the end of the month

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

As models indicate increasing moisture and lessening shear
as well as lower pressures in the caribbean
I think a tropical system is possible in the next 5-10 days

[tailgater]

From TWD 805 pm
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UNLIKE THE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE GULF...BROAD SFC TROUGHING IS
PRODUCING A WEAK PRES GRAD IN THE CARIB WITH TWO SFC TROUGH AXES
BEING ANALYZED IN THE REGION. ONE IS IN THE NW CARIB RUNNING
FROM HONDURAS TO NW CUBA. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE AXIS...BUT BASED ON SFC OBS IT
DOES NOT APPEAR CLOSED.