This coming hurricane season=IWIC 2007 Forecast

[ncupsscweather]

Yes I had read there 2005 forecast to about the Gulf Coast not having much activity... But buddy where they way wrong.

[TheRingo]

I should have known when I first saw the countdown being done before their forecast came out that this couldn't be taken seriously. Then seeing the flashing siren when the prediction came out kinda made it really cheesy. Then skimming through the prediction and I got to the end and read the conclusion. It just seemed so unlikely that this is just an attempt at recognition, IMO.

[jasons2k]

I do not think this forecast will verify. Too many factors point to several US threats this season.

[wxmann_91]

I should have known when I first saw the countdown being done before their forecast came out that this couldn't be taken seriously. Then seeing the flashing siren when the prediction came out kinda made it really cheesy. Then skimming through the prediction and I got to the end and read the conclusion. It just seemed so unlikely that this is just an attempt at recognition, IMO.

Well, you could've said it a little more nicely, or just omitted the comment altogether... one of the authors is a member here.

Some constructive criticism...

I think it is a little to "assertive" in its forecasts (ex. XXX will happen). The atmosphere is in a constant state of flux... there is no way one pattern holds through 5 months. While I do not know their methodology, it seems heavily based on indexes, analogs, and previous observations. It seems very confident at the weakness around 60° to 65°W holding up. My gripe with that, so to speak, is that the weakness, if it does indeed materialize (which would be a very good piece of forecasting from their part), can and will fluctuate. Enter a TC, which can be extremely weak, weak, medium, strong, or very strong, and the options will be quite different. Or suppose some shortwave trough just happens to penetrate the subtropical ridge. One can predict the mean pattern, but in reality, the specifics are impossible to forecast, IMO. Though that's not a complaint of methodology, it's just the diction in the outlook text which make the outlook sound a little too confident.

Another gripe - they speak of averages (Phase X of Index Y -- average Z amount of storms, etc etc). Unfortunately, the variability of other atmospheric factors from year to year, and the wide range of numbers for each individual year, making averages possibly inaccurate, especially considering the small sample size we have for +AMO and -ENSO years, and the narrow margin of differences (e.g. 4 storms for Phase 1 vs. 2 storms for Phase 2 of the SNA).