2007 Hurricane Forecast From UCF

#1 Postby **TampaFl** » Sun May 27, 2007 9:42 am

Interesting read from The University Of Central Florida on their review of the 2006 season & forecast and their forecast for the upcoming 2007 season. Caution: 1.8M PDF File. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

UCF 2007 Forecast

UCF Home Page

Robert 8-)

#2 Postby **windstorm99** » Sun May 27, 2007 10:11 am

This outlook has been out for a few days now and to me parts of it make no sence, how could they could leave south florida shaded green when we should be at an elevated risk in any given season.

#3 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sun May 27, 2007 10:27 am

Does UCF even have a meteorology program? I dont think so. UCF is also comparably new.

Opal storm · #4 Postby **Opal storm** » Sun May 27, 2007 10:37 am

windstorm99 wrote:This outlook has been out for a few days now and to me parts of it make no sence, how could they could leave south florida shaded green when we should be at an elevated risk in any given season.

I agree, that's insane they have Miami at "much below normal" and the rest of the state is shaded in red. Also look at the LA/TX state line, "above normal" risk in LA and "below normal" just across the state line in the next county???

x-y-no · #5 Postby **x-y-no** » Sun May 27, 2007 10:37 am

fact789 wrote:Does UCF even have a meteorology program? I dont think so. UCF is also comparably new.

Looks like this is done by their statistics department. They're using past history of landfalls correlated to climate and then using standard (not developed by them) climate models to project for the season.

#6 Postby **Blown Away** » Sun May 27, 2007 2:17 pm

Looks like their predicting Frances/Jeanne type paths for Fl, higher risk for St. Lucie County over Dade County. Also their going out on a limb predicting higher probability for N Florida. Hope thier is no -removed- mixed in their prediction being in Orlando.

Extremeweatherguy · #7 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun May 27, 2007 2:31 pm

this is another odd forecast. One county "well above average" risk and then the next county over "well below average" risk? It just doesn't work that way. Considering UCF doesn't have a meteorology school, I don't think this forecast is really trustworthy.

BTW: Did anyone else notice that the track they have for Ernesto last year in their graphic is wrong? A mistake like that makes me even more hesitant to believe this prediction.

Actual Ernesto path: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cas ... .small.jpg

#8 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Sun May 27, 2007 2:49 pm

Would have been nice if they had run a spell checker on their diagrams. The refer to Cedar Key as "Ceader Key". That's unacceptable in a document they want to be taken seriously.

#9 Postby **OuterBanker** » Sun May 27, 2007 3:55 pm

Looks more like an oil futures study. And just once I would like to be any other color than red (actually dark brown on this site). I did see one site that for the first time let us be slight risk (or was it below average)?

Jam151 · #10 Postby **Jam151** » Sun May 27, 2007 8:26 pm

Blown_away wrote:Looks like their predicting Frances/Jeanne type paths for Fl, higher risk for St. Lucie County over Dade County. Also their going out on a limb predicting higher probability for N Florida. Hope thier is no -removed- mixed in their prediction being in Orlando.

Now a university is being questioned for -removed-? Where do you people get this stuff from?

#11 Postby **Blown Away** » Sun May 27, 2007 8:28 pm

Jam151 wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Looks like their predicting Frances/Jeanne type paths for Fl, higher risk for St. Lucie County over Dade County. Also their going out on a limb predicting higher probability for N Florida. Hope thier is no -removed- mixed in their prediction being in Orlando.

Now a university is being questioned for -removed-? Where do you people get this stuff from?

Loosen up a little, I was kidding, hence the smiley face. Geessh

2007 Hurricane Forecast From UCF

2007 Hurricane Forecast From UCF

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