Okay this is a very amateur forecast (obviously) but here's my thoughts on who could be at highest risk of being impacted by a tropical system this season.
Red=High risk of being impacted by a hurricane/tropical storm
Yellow=medium risk of being impacted by a hurricane/tropical storm
light blue=low risk of being impacted by a hurricane/tropical storm
The red circles represent the "hot" areas for development and the white arrows represent the most likely direction of activity, all of which is based on MY opinion only.
My forecast for June through early August
Right now I see the setup with a stubborn ridge over the SE US coast staying in place over the beginning of the season. I see the moisture flow aiming towards the western Gulf so anything that forms in the Carib will likely take a NW track across the Yucatan and head towards Texas or Mexico. Another hot spot I see is around the Bahamas where Andrea formed. A storm could form there and cut across S FL and head into the Gulf early in the season.
My forecast for Mid-August through the rest of the seasn
Around mid August I think we will see a pattern change as we head closer to the peak of the season. I really don't have anything to back this up, but I just think mother nature will balance itself out. I think the ridge over the SE will finally break down in coverage and move east. This will allow a more northerly component to storms, therefore I have most of the SE coastline at high/medium risk. I think the Bermuda high will be situated to steer most Atlantic storms towards the SE US (especially Florida). The Caribbean will also be pretty active I'm sure and could pose a great threat to Florida/eastern GOM as well. I have the Outer Banks at high risk because they stick out and I think later in the season we'll have one or two storms brush the east coast.
Well that's it, comments welcomed.
