Public Advisory #1
000
WTNT32 KNHC 012035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007
...TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES...520 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...
375 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
BARRY REACHES THE COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.
BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
===============================================================
Forecast #1
000
WTNT22 KNHC 012036
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
2100 UTC FRI JUN 01 2007
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 85.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 85.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 85.7W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 41.0N 70.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 85.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
=============================================================
Discussion #1
000
WTNT42 KNHC 012052
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKED THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 1000 MB WITH
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KNOTS. INITIALLY...THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO
BE A SUBTROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.
BARRY COULD RETAIN SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IS HEADING
TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BARRY SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.
BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTION OF
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND PANHANDLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 24.2N 85.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 26.5N 84.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 78.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1800Z 41.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
====================================
US Watch/Warnings
000
WTNT82 KNHC 012129
TCVAT2
BARRY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007
.TROPICAL STORM BARRY
FLZ028-034-039-042-048-049-050-051-055-060-061-062-065-020300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1002.070601T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007
KEATON-BEACH-FL 29.82N 83.60W
BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W
$$
FLZ018-027-020300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1002.070601T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007
ST-MARKS-FL 30.10N 84.20W
KEATON-BEACH-FL 29.82N 83.60W
$$
ATTN...WFO...TAE...TBW...
Tropical Storm Barry advisories
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Tropical Storm Barry advisories
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