2007 Storm Occurance Timeframes. (Currently "C" st

[Weatherfreak000]

Given our odds-busting formation of the second system so earlier this season, I figured I would enlighten everyone on how we are doing in comparison to some other famous years, and maybe get a feel for just how active this season could/or couldn't become. Whether or not this season turns out to be a dud, two early storms and one forming on the first day of the season is significant enough. If the admin find this topic interesting, looking for possible sticky and asking everyone to contribute as time passes...


Andrea forms May 9th.


Andrea would form.....

64 Days AFTER Hurricane #1 (1908)

18 Days AFTER Tropical Storm Ana (2003), and Subtropical Storm #1 (1992)

5 Days BEFORE Tropical Storm #1 (1933)

6 Days BEFORE Tropical Storm #1 (1887)

30 Days BEFORE Tropical Storm Arlene (2005)

32 Days BEFORE Tropical Storm Alberto (2006)

83 Days BEFORE Hurricane Alex (2004)






Barry forms June 1st.

Barry would form....


15 Days AFTER Tropical Storm #2 (1887)

8 Days AFTER Hurricane #2 (1908) [What an insane year...]

10 Days BEFORE Tropical Depression #2 (2003)

26 Days BEFORE Hurricane #2 (1933)

27 Days BEFORE Tropical Storm Bret (2005)

47 Days BEFORE Tropical Storm Beryl (2006)

63 Days BEFORE Tropical Depression #2 (2004)

76 Days BEFORE Hurricane Andrew (1992, from this point on this year shall be excluded from the time frame).




Doing the math on that obviously you can conclude we're...

15 Days behind 1887

8 Days behind 1908

10 Days ahead of 2003

26 Days ahead of 1933

27 Days ahead of 2005

47 Days ahead of 2006

63 Days ahead of 2004

And finally, 76 Days ahead of 1992 (Included for it's Early April STS)




Based on this current information we are vastly ahead of schedule given over 100 years in hurricane history.


There IS indeed a record in our favor when it comes to being the earliest, and the lucky date is June 11th. Were we to see the formation of the C Storm before then we would have the fastest forming season going to the C Storm, and into June in Atlantic Basin history.


(To be continued with the formation of Chantelle)

[wxwatcher91]

The graph shows named storms for selected years and the 1944 - 2005 average. The numbers beside the years in the key indicate the total number of named storms for the season.

[Weatherfreak000]

Appreciate the graphic wxwatcher!


That shows pretty well that's we are highly above the given averages as of right now.

[x-y-no]

27 Days ahead of 2005

Now there's a frightening thought ...

Let's hope it can't keep that lead into the heart of the season.

[somethingfunny]

Okay. No more storms until August please.

[TheRingo]

Can we really count Andrea as an event? I think it was more a nor'easter. Barry should actually be Andrea in my opinion. Then you can do your calculations from this. We should not over-hype this season just yet.

[Weatherfreak000]

Can we really count Andrea as an event? I think it was more a nor'easter. Barry should actually be Andrea in my opinion. Then you can do your calculations from this. We should not over-hype this season just yet.

As I've said in response to this,


If you look at Andrea at the time of it's classification IMO it didn't deserve to be named Subtropical. After it had supposedly degenerated into a Depression and had that major re-strengthening phase it was quite clear to me the storm had reached TS status, it became a bona fide worthy system for naming.


91L was a system that was on the closest break of classification. Had it been slightly to the South still when it reached it's peak and wasn't moving so fast I would say another worthy candidate for the name Chantal.


Normally I don't like to jump on preseason fluke storms like Ana either, but when three solid systems in the month of MAY (remember that) happen like this, you kinda have to ask yourself. How many times can you hit the lottery before it comes more than luck?


Note this however, I am NOT trying to hype this hurricane season. I'm listing the historical implications this year COULD have if this next storm forms fast enough. I sincerely doubt we could hold 2005's pace into July.

[TheRingo]

One thing that is for sure the shear in the caribbeans have been very low lately. Maybe the La Nina is showing itself here early.

[Swimdude]

I'm not using early-forming storms to predict the outcome of the entire season. As you see, the data is pretty scattered.

[Frank2]

See my post "June 1 tropical systems..." which (per today's Miami Herald) mentions that June 1 storms are not always an indicator of a busy season...

[Weatherfreak000]

See my post "June 1 tropical systems..." which (per today's Miami Herald) mentions that June 1 storms are not always an indicator of a busy season...

I saw your post...


I mean wow...in nearly 40 years only twice has a storm formed on June 1st that's quite impressive.


I note alot of differences in that season and this season however, one good reason being that had been the season opener storm in 1968 and in 2007 we've allready seen two potential systems and one of those named.

But who knows I suppose..

[CrazyC83]

I think that if we were to get a quick Chantal in the next couple weeks or so, it will either be deep in the Caribbean (and mostly a Central America threat) or in the NW Gulf of Mexico (just off the Texas coast) as the subtropical jet stream is really powerful. Barry got lucky in that he was able to find a small weakness.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think that if we were to get a quick Chantal in the next couple weeks or so, it will either be deep in the Caribbean (and mostly a Central America threat) or in the NW Gulf of Mexico (just off the Texas coast) as the subtropical jet stream is really powerful. Barry got lucky in that he was able to find a small weakness.

Actually below I posted the wind shear tendency for the last 5 days and you'll notice a definite change in the Sub-Tropical Jet. I noticed this pattern in the long range gfs as the southern jet weakend in the pacific. It made sense to me that it wouldn't be long till we see it happen in the Gulf/Caribbean. I posted about this in another thread. GFS has been showing this pattern to our west in the Pacific. I think it is important to note.http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/view ... hp?t=94655

Anyway... Here is the 5 day loop, you will notice a significant change, and in a couple of weeks we may not have a whole lot of windshear.

Wind Shear Movie
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... tjava.html




00 300mb Windheights

192 Hours