AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2007
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CUBA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN TURN, FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM A PWAT OF 1.22" THIS MORNING TO 2.20" BY LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TUESDAY WE STILL WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST
STEERING FLOW SO WITH ALL ABOVE IN MIND WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS
(50%) OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA (MAINLY BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. THEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON STEERING FLOW SLOWS
DOWN AND BOTH SEABREEZES WILL BE ACTIVE SO 50 PERCENT POPS WILL BE
CENTERED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE INTERIOR. THEN ON THURSDAY, THE
EASTERLIES RETURN AND DEEPEN SO THE FOCUS OF POPS WILL BE CNTL AND
W WITH LOWER POPS SINCE PWAT`S DECREASE LESS THAN 2". THEN FOR THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS WITH PWAT`S DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.5".
BY MONDAY, CURRENT GFS SHOWS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN
WITH AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AGAIN AND AN INCREASE OF WINDS AOB 10K.
SO HAVE POPS AT 40 PERCENT FOR MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
Where is this tropical wave located? this is the first time I'm hearing of this.
NWS MIami possible tropical wave Monday
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